No to China in trade fight

Canada should exercise caution and decline the invitation from its Chinese ambassador to Canada to form an alliance against the United States in the ongoing tariff war.

Such a confrontational approach risks escalating tensions with its largest trading partner and could lead to severe economic repercussions.

The U.S. and Canada share a deeply integrated economic relationship, with approximately $2.5 billion in goods and services crossing the border daily, supporting millions of jobs in both nations. Aligning against the U.S. could provoke further retaliatory tariffs or non-tariff measures, such as restrictions on Canadian energy exports, which are critical to both countries—U.S. refineries rely heavily on Canadian heavy crude and any disruption could spike gas prices in the U.S. while devastating Canada’s oil industry, particularly in Alberta.

Instead of confrontation, Canada would benefit more from diplomatic negotiations to secure exemptions or mitigate tariffs, leveraging its position as the U.S.’s top customer—purchasing more from the U.S. than China, Japan, the UK, and France combined—to advocate for mutual economic interests.

Moreover, joining an alliance against the U.S. could undermine Canada’s long-term strategic interests and strain its sovereignty. The integrated North American supply chains, especially in industries like automotive manufacturing, mean that escalation would harm Canadian businesses and workers as much as, if not more than their American counterparts.

For instance, Bank of Canada projections estimate a mutual 25% tariff scenario could reduce Canada’s GDP by at least 3% over 2025-26, with significant job losses and inflation spikes. A coalition against the U.S. might also embolden calls for Canada to make concessions on non-trade issues, such as border security or defence spending, potentially compromising national autonomy.

Rather than risking a prolonged trade war with uncertain outcomes, Canada should pursue de-escalation through targeted retaliatory tariffs and broader economic diplomacy, engaging U.S. lawmakers and the public to highlight the shared costs of the conflict, thereby preserving the mutually beneficial relationship.

Shane Burrows