Employment numbers in good spot heading into potential trade war

Photo: The Canadian Press

The January job picture was mostly positive at the regional, provincial and national levels, with one notable exception.

Metro Kelowna’s unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.9% and added 900 jobs, and the national jobless mark also dropped by 0.1%, checking in at 6.6%, according to Statistics Canada data released Friday.

B.C., meanwhile, added 23,000 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 6% thanks to a large population increase.

The one location where the unemployment rate jumped substantially is Kamloops, which made its Labour Force Survey debut this month. The city’s population recently met the threshold required for it to be considered a census metropolitan area.

Kamloops’ jobless rate jumped from 4.3% in December to 4.8% in January thanks to a large population increase of nearly 6,000 people while adding 2,900 jobs.

The entire Thompson-Okanagan region had a 0.1% unemployment rate increase, registering at 5.2% in January.

The national labour market added 76,000 jobs, beating economist expectations for the month and furthering speculation the Bank of Canada could decide against an interest-rate cut next month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected only about a third of those new jobs and for the unemployment rate to rise slightly.

“We’ve got an incredibly strong job market that’s got some serious momentum behind it,” Scotiabank vice-president Derek Holt said.

“I think what this means is that there’s a very, very high bar for the Bank of Canada to be contemplating any further rate cuts in the near term.”

Holt said the question is what’s driving the strong numbers. He speculated perhaps the trade war rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump has shaken companies’ confidence to invest, and in turn they’re hiring more workers to meet production needs.

“Maybe Donald Trump is making Canada's job market great again,” he said.

The provincial government said it is focusing on the U.S. tariff threat by strengthening the economy.

“We are fast-tracking major economic projects to deliver good paying, family-supporting jobs throughout the entire province and we are working hard to get B.C. goods to new markets, including the ongoing push to knock down trade barriers within Canada,” B.C. Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation Diana Gibson said in a press release. “So many people are coming together to buy B.C. and support Canadian products first.”

The B.C. Conservatives believe more could be done to support the provincial economy.

“The latest labour force data exposes the NDP government’s failure to foster real economic growth,” Kelowna MLA and Opposition critic for Jobs, Economic Development, and Immigration Gavin Dew said. “While B.C. added 23,000 jobs in January, unemployment still rose to six per cent, proving that job creation is not keeping pace with population growth.

“Worse, the province continues to rely on taxpayer-funded government jobs instead of supporting the private sector. Over the past two years, the public sector has grown nine times faster than private industry in B.C.—an unsustainable trend that signals economic weakness, not strength.”

— with files from The Canadian Press