Thompson-Okanagan snowpacks healthy as rest of province sees increased drought risk

Photo: BC River Forecast Centre

Snowpacks are above normal for this time of the year in the Thompson-Okanagan while the rest of the province deals with an increased risk of spring drought.

The BC River Forecast Centre published its February snowpack survey Wednesday, the time of the year when two-thirds of the seasonal snowpack has typically accumulated.

The Okanagan (121% of normal), Lower Thompson (115%) and Boundary (116%) are the only basins reporting above average snowpacks.

Within the region, the South Thompson (86%), Similkameen (77%) and North Thompson (63%) are reporting below normal snow depths.

“Currently, the regions in the South Interior with slightly above normal snowpack have the greatest risk for snowmelt related flooding in the spring,” said the BC River Forecast Centre.

Inversely, below normal snowpacks in other regions “are an early indicator for potential spring or summer drought.”

The report notes that the two models that predict inflows into the Okanagan Lake system “differ substantially” between expecting near or below normal and well above normal seasonal inflows.

After three La Niña winters in a row, there is a 82% chance that there will be a transition to neutral conditions in the spring.

La Niña occurs when oceanic temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific Ocean region are below normal for an extended period. Historically, La Niña conditions create cooler temperatures for British Columbia and wetter weather in the South Coast and Vancouver Island during the winter months.

The report says seasonal weather forecasts from late January from Environment Canada indicate a greater likelihood of below normal temperatures from February through April for the interior regions of B.C.