Where is B.C. going with its climate policy ?

Last year was the hottest year on record, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hundreds of climate scientists from the International Panel on Climate Change now foresee global temperatures rising at least 2.5 C above industrial levels with catastrophic consequences according to a recent report in The Guardian. Yet B.C., which calls itself a leader on climate, has seen emissions soar 26% from 1990 to 2021 (the last year for which we have complete statistics).

Meanwhile, the U.K. has seen its emissions drop 53% below 1990 levels. All the other G7 nations have also seen a drop in emissions since 1990. Within Canada, the only provinces with a worst record than B.C. are Alberta and Saskatchewan. And the six eastern provinces have all seen a drop in emissions since 1990.

For years, B.C. has tried to have it both ways, investing heavily in energy efficiency and expanding the province’s electrical system with new wind, solar and high voltage transmission lines. But at the same time, the government is promoting new LNG projects which entail more methane (natural gas) extraction through fracking.

The B.C. government claims all new projects after LNG Canada will be carbon-neutral because they will be supplied with electricity. This is wishful thinking. Expanding electricity production itself is not carbon-neutral when you consider the construction phase. Fracking is also fossil fuel-intensive. During extraction, transport to the LNG facility and shipping off-shore not only are fossil fuels used, especially methane, but methane escapes.

Several recent studies show methane to be worse than coal in greenhouse gas emissions over 20 years when methane leakage is taken into account.

The B.C. government assured us the province could build the first phase of LNG Canada and Woodfibre LNG and stay within Clean BC’s emissions targets. However, the province is again not on track to meet these targets for 2025 (and has never met its targets) because LNG Canada is due to come online this year—and that’s only with the pollution from this single facility.

Woodfibre LNG is under construction and there are three more LNG proposals—Tilbury Phase 2, Cedar LNG and Ksi Lisims LNG, as well as the second phase of LNG Canada. If all four additional facilities are built, they will exceed the province’s sectoral target for the oil and gas industry more than threefold. Two have all the permits they need for construction, and the other two are moving through the process as if B.C.’s climate commitments did not exist.

According to Clean Energy Canada, if all six LNG projects were to be built, their operational and upstream emissions alone would make up 40% of the province’s 2030 emissions target (that is even assuming all facilities are electrified, which in itself would require the electricity of 8.4 Site C dams).

And that’s just B.C.’s emissions. The emissions from combusting the exported fuel at its destination—which is accounted for in the importing countries’ greenhouse gas inventories—would be 10 times greater. In addition, the assumption that LNG can reduce emissions by displacing coal is highly uncertain, with some studies suggesting it could actually have a negative overall impact on emissions. Furthermore, any expansion or reliance on LNG risks undermining public and private-sector investments in renewable energy and locking in fossil-fuel-related infrastructure.

Put simply, LNG expansion is inconsistent with a province that aims to achieve net zero.

There is also a question of market demand. LNG markets are expected to be over-supplied by the end of the decade, just as B.C.’s proposed LNG projects would be coming on-stream. On top of that, LNG from B.C. is expected to be more expensive compared to many other jurisdictions, further undermining its business case.

To add insult to injury for B.C. residents, LNG Canada, owned entirely by foreign companies, was offered $6 billion over 40 years in tax and regulatory relief.

Recently LNG projects were offered an exemption from 65% or more of the carbon tax.

B.C. has some decisions to make, among them, this spring the government must decide whether to greenlight the Ksi Lisims LNG project, as well as the reconfigured Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline to feed it.

Both projects are highly contested by First Nations and environmental groups, even though the Ksi Lisims is partly owned by the Nisga’a First Nation. However, many of its members are against the project.

Perhaps, B.C. should have a look at the actions of the province of Quebec. After 12 years of struggle against fracking by environmental groups, Bill 21 was approved by the National Assembly and will soon become law. That law will put an end to all new exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in the province.

Quebec is definitely moving into the new era beyond fossil fuels. B.C. should do the same.

This article is written by or on behalf of an outsourced columnist and does not necessarily reflect the views of Castanet.