BC United facing 'political wipeout' as Conservatives surge: poll

A new poll is showing the BC Conservatives ahead of the BC NDP for the first time.

The poll published Friday by Mainstreet Research is a unique one and tested two scenarios. A group of responders were queried using the BC United brand while another group were asked the ballot question using BC Liberal, the party’s former name.

The results from both versions were combined together, putting the BC Conservatives on top with 38.9% of respondents, followed by the BC NDP at 36.2%, BC United at 15.3% and BC Greens at 6.7%.

“The latest snapshot of the BC political landscape paints a grim scene for Kevin Falcon and the BC United Party” said Quito Maggi, president & CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“Even in the unlikely scenario where they choose to reverse course on the disastrous party branding exercise, it’s unlikely they would have enough time to recover before the next election.”

The poll also asked how B.C. voters might vote in a federal election. The Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre received 55.8% support versus 17.8% for the Liberals and 15.8% for the NDP.

“Falcon is not alone in facing a political wipeout, both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh are facing similar challenges,” Maggi said.

“The only thing Trudeau and Singh have on their side is time, something Kevin Falcon is quickly running out of.”

The BC Conservative Party led by John Rustad, a former BC United cabinet minister, has no affiliation with the federal party and is emerging from the political wilderness.

Rustad, 60, became Conservative leader last March after being dumped from the BC United caucus in August 2022.

Bruce Banman, a former Abbotsford mayor, bolted from BC United last September, saying he was joining the Conservatives to be able to speak freely on issues of concern to his constituents.

The two-member caucus gave the B.C. Conservatives official party status. It marks the first time in 50 years two Conservatives have sat together in the legislature.

The party is set to run a full slate of candidates across the province in this year’s election which will be on on for before October 19, 2024.

The poll was conducted April 23 to April 24 among a sample of 962 adults using automated telephone interviews. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level.

Another poll published this week by a different agency, Research Co., found the BC NDP with a more healthy lead with 45% of decided voters, ahead of the Conservatives (27%), BC United (15%) and Greens (11%)