An independent COVID-19 modelling group predicting a dramatic spike in daily COVID-19 cases

'Into the next wave'

An independent COVID-19 modelling group from B.C. is anticipating a dramatic spike in daily COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions unless more regional restrictions are set.

“This higher transmission rate of the Delta variant is really taking advantage of communities that have lower vaccination rates,” Dr. Sarah Otto, a UBC zoology professor and one of the report’s authors, told CTV Vancouver.

“At this point, we are solidly into the next wave of this pandemic due to Delta.”

The group's modelling suggests case counts could exceed 1,000 per day by September.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry was asked about the modelling on Friday and reinforced the vaccines effectiveness.

“Even with Delta, we know the vaccines are still very effective against that virus,” she said. "We're seeing a decoupling, a de-linking of hospitalizations."

Henry says she has not ruled out more regional-based restrictions.

“Right now, we’re taking the measures that we need to address the situation that we’re in today,” said Henry. “And we’ll continue to do that. And we’ll continue to tell you as we learn more.”

-With files from CTV Vancouver

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