Social interactions can double without virus spike, says B.C.

Setting the stage for an announcement later this week on the planned relaunch of B.C.’s economy, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry outlined new virus models Monday on just how much social contact the healthcare system can handle during the “new normal.”

Henry explained that society in B.C. is currently sitting at around 30 per cent of normal social interactions, a figure that could likely be doubled to 60 per cent safely.

But pushing things too far, to 80 per cent, could send COVID-19’s spread back into exponential territory.

“If we go back to December, where we were having lots of gatherings… this virus has the opportunity to take off quite rapidly,” she said. “Our challenge, and work together, is to find that sweet spot.”

Henry said physical distancing remains the single most effective tool to fight the spread of the virus.

“It has allowed us to put the brakes on COVID-19, but we haven't stopped the car, and it is very unlikely that we are going to be able to, at least in the coming months,” she said, explaining there are still many unknowns about the virus.

She said it remains to be seen if we will see a surge in COVID-19 cases in the fall when the traditional flu season begins — something they are planning for.

Moving forward, Henry outlined key principles for “the new normal,” including good hygiene and hand washing, following public health advice, staying home when sick and reducing physical contact outside the home (no hand shaking or hugging).

Workspaces will need to be engineered to prevent virus spread, through things like plexiglass shields now common at many businesses. 

Travel should be reduced if it is not essential and increased sanitization will continue at home and work. While social circles can start to widen, they shouldn’t return to where they were prior to the pandemic.

“This is, I believe, the end of our beginning of this pandemic,” Henry said. “We do not yet know what is going to happen, but we now have some room to increase our social connections.”

Health Minister Adrian Dix said the pandemic has forced the province to take unprecedented steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

“Today’s modelling shows us what happens when we all join the fight, and join across B.C., we made a difference, we made a very big difference. One that has kept most of us healthy,” he said.

“This will be a different summer than any of us have ever known, but it can be a summer of renewal if we hold fast to the rule of guidelines that Dr. Henry sets for us,” Dix added.

Dr. Henry said the public can expect more details and timing on the reopen of B.C. on Wednesday. Premier Horgan will take part in that press conference.

The province Monday also announced 53 new coronavirus cases and three deaths within the past 48 hours.