Conservatives hold the lead in BC, NDP pushes ahead of Liberals

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The 2019 federal election is just days away, and it looks like it will come down to the wire.

The latest information from Insights West indicates the Conservatives holding a lead, with a final-week surge for the NDP and lukewarm support for the Liberals. This poll was conducted between Oct. 13 and 16 and sampled  1,670 adult residents of B.C.

The online poll shows the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer have held a steady lead in British Columbia.

All three of Insights West’s polls, have put the Tories in front, but not by much. The latest poll shows 27 per cent of voters in the province saying they would vote Conservative in the election, that's down from 29 per cent in September. Liberal support has been steady, hovering around 20 per cent.

The biggest move has been made by the NDP. The New Democrats have made a breakthrough to push ahead of the Liberals for second place in B.C. with 23 per cent of voter support, up from 14 per cent in mid-September. The Green party has dropped from 14 per cent to 11 per cent.

The surge in the NDP numbers appears to have come at the expense of the Greens.

NDP support among younger voters in B.C. stands at 33 per cent, up 11 points from the mid-September poll. Support among B.C. women has also moved up from 16 per cent in mid-September to 26 per cent in the new poll. The NDP message has also resonated stronger in all regions of the province, with Metro Vancouver showing a near 10-point increase to 23 per cent support.

The latest information on voter certainty indicates the Conservatives lead the way at 78 per cent;
the NDP stands at 65 per cent; and the Liberals' certainty stands at 63 per cent heading into the final days of the campaign.

Advance polls in B.C. indicate 25 per cent have already cast their votes. Of those who care to share that information, 34 per cent voted for the Conservatives, followed by the NDP at 21 per cent, the Liberals come in at 20 per cent and the Greens at 16 per cent — 7 per cent  refused to answer who they voted for.

“Our latest poll results are welcome news for the NDP and Jagmeet Singh, but before anyone breaks out the champagne, the key in this election as it has been in several in recent memory across Canada is voter turnout,” says Steve Mossop, President of Insights West. “More often than their older cohorts, young voters have a tendency to stay home come election day. As the advance polls have already suggested, Conservative voter turnout is something that party can bank on much more so than any other party.”