Photo: BC government

Forestry is a major industry in the Interior.

Vernon’s mayor says small and rural communities will be largely impacted by the trade war with the U.S., despite recent economic modelling showing otherwise.

At Wednesday’s Regional District of North Okanagan board meeting, Vernon Mayor Victor Cumming gave his fellow directors an update on his attendance at the Southern Interior of Local Government Association conference.

The meeting took place in Revelstoke April 29 to May 2, and Cumming said one presentation outlined expected impacts from tariffs using economic modelling.

“The number one impact from tariffs will be on the greater Vancouver construction industry, duh, it's because it's in billions,” said Cumming. “But the biggest impact on the province will be the forest industry, on small communities. But it doesn't show up.”

He said this is because the modelling works with dollars rather than communities.

Cumming, who was a regional economist and rural development specialist before he became mayor, said that focus on dollars is a weakness in the model.

“From my look at what they've done in terms of numbers, the biggest impact is going to be in communities like ours…small communities highly dependent on forest harvesting and post harvest processing,” said Cumming.

Cumming said the presentation was from the Union of BC Municipalities. The UBCM’s annual meeting is Sept. 22 to 26 in Victoria, where a presentation of the tariff impact is expected as well.

While any hits to the forestry sector will be felt, it wasn't all bad news on Wednesday evening. Director Kari Gares mentioned later in the meeting that while the trade war is causing uncertainty for B.C., the province isn't as impacted as our neighbours in Alberta.

"Because we don't have a huge manufacturing sector, and that's who's actually feeling the brunt of it at this point in time," said Gares.