Environment Canada predicts warmer than usual fall, could skip altogether

Dramatic weather transition

According to Environment Canada, this may be the fall that doesn't happen — or at least, not the kind of autumn we’re used to.

Current forecasts show summer going late and the possibility of winter arriving early, with harsher conditions than usual. 

"Fall is a transition season," says Environment Canada meteorologist Carmen Hartt. "We go from the heat of summer to the cold of winter but with what’s in the forecast, the most likely scenario is that we will see a bit more of a dramatic transition than usual from summer to winter."

Hartt says although this week is forecasted about five to seven degrees above average throughout the Okanagan, we’re still not close enough to break a temperature record. 

"It’s going to be close to the records, but it’s not like a big record-breaking event, so basically we have a ridge of high pressure bringing pretty sunny and warm weather ... there’s definitely potential, we’re flirting with records but we’re not actually forecasting record breaking temperatures right now. Part of that reason is our records go back to 1899, so it’s really hard to break a record."

In Kelowna, the record for Sept. 28 was set in 1967 at 26.1 degrees. Today, temperatures are expected to reach 21 or 22 degrees.

Tuesday's record is 26.7 degrees, set in 1963, and Wednesday's record is 25.7 degrees, which was set in 2006. 

Penticton's temperature highs this week are forecasted between 21 and 23 degrees, with historical temperature records sitting between 26 and 29 degrees. 

Despite colder temperatures setting in at night, she says we're also nowhere near close for overnight temperature record lows. In Kelowna, overnight record temperature lows for the last week of September are close to minus four degrees.

As for the next month, Hartt says we should expect above average temperatures that last for a while. 

"It’s definitely showing a trend of normal to above normal and no chance of below normal temperatures, so it does look like the warm trend will continue. It doesn’t mean we won’t have, like last week we had four or five cool rainy days - it just means the overall will be more warm days than cool days, and it does look like it will go into the next month."

Earlier this month, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña advisory for the upcoming winter. 

For weather information in your area, visit the Environment Canada website.

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