Research Co. and Glacier Media poll has NDP ahead of BC Liberals by 7 points

Horgan leads in polls so far

A Research Co. and Glacier Media poll has the BC NDP ahead of the BC Liberals by seven points as the provincial election campaign gets underway.

The incumbent New Democrats are the choice of 44% of decided respondents, compared to 37% for the Liberals and 12% for the BC Green Party, followed by the BC Conservatives with 4%. 

Women prefer the incumbent party by a margin of 47% to the Liberals' 35%). However, the race is closer among men (41% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Liberals).

Premier John Horgan has fallen from 73% in May to 67% this week.

"The snap election call has not led to a provincewide revolt against the sitting head of government," said Research Co.'s Mario Canseco.

Public support for the BC Liberals has increased among decided voters, with a strong showing in their traditional stronghold of the Southern Interior, where it leads the BC NDP by six points.

The approval rating for Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson fell by nine points to 39%. In the preferred premier question, he trails Horgan by 17 points (44% to 27%).

"Gathering positive momentum on the 'best premier' question will be essential to turn the fortunes of the BC Liberals around," says Canseco. "Right before the start of the 2017 campaign, then-incumbent premier Christy Clark had a three-point edge over then-opposition leader Horgan (25% to 22%). In this campaign, Horgan starts with a sizable advantage on this indicator."

The situation is complex for Sonia Furstenau, just days from her anointment as BC Greens leader.

More than a third of likely voters (37%) approve of Furstenau’s performance, while 27% disapprove and 36% are undecided. The BC Greens continue to connect well with younger voters, but Furstenau’s biggest challenge is name recognition.

The BC Conservatives remain a big question mark, says Canseco.

"The party’s website has gone through six and a half months without any updates, and – as was the case the last time – it is too early to know how many candidates the party intends to recruit."

The approval rating for BC Conservative leader Trevor Bolin stands at 23%, and the party’s share of the vote has dropped from 9% in May to 4%.

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