Predictions not that straightforward
Famed American President Harry S. Truman was often frustrated with Economists. When questioning his advisors about the future of America’s economy he was tiring of the answers which always were preceded by, “Well on the one hand Mr. President... and yet, on the other hand...,” his terse reply was, “What this country needs is more one handed economists.”
Likewise, the crystal ball we use to attempt to predict what is happening in real estate is still foggy even as the market shows marked signs of recovery.
The past few weeks have been frenetic to say the least as clients have missed out on offers for homes after viewing or been involved in multiple offer situations and for the first month in a long time, it is noticeable that we have a higher percentage of out of town buyers.
The irony is in the dynamism of the headlines I am seeing on various newsletters and articles. For example:
- Canadian consumer prices fell more than expected in June
- Bank of Canada revises growth downward for 2012 and 2013
- Canadian housing starts unexpectedly increased in June
- U.S. new home construction increased more than expected in June
- US industrial production rose by more than expected in June
- U.S. June retail sales unexpectedly decline
- U.S. producer prices unexpectedly inch upward in June
So what we do know is we don’t know what is happening and as Harry S. Truman’s economists would say, “On the one hand the economy seems to be improving and yet on the other hand the economy seems to be worsening”.
In the end you choose and it would appear as though you have chosen to move on with life’s decisions and make progress on your own world.
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The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.
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