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Real Estate
It is always good to see signs of Spring.  (Photo: Flickr user, flickrchickr)
It is always good to see signs of Spring. (Photo: Flickr user, flickrchickr)

Pent up demand driving the market

by Contributed - Story: 53738
Apr 10, 2010 / 5:00 am

It is always good to see signs of Spring and perhaps a little earlier than normal this year. Predictably we are seeing a lift in the real estate markets for this time of year but with a few subtle differences...

Olympic impact: truly, the Olympics proved to be a magnificent distraction for a lot of businesses and real estate was no different. Transactions were slowed during the approximate three week period of the Olympics. What a great show though and so good to see a program like “Own the Podium” succeed so well for us as a country. The tangible impact of the BC Olympics will be felt for years to come. While our tourism authorities did precious little to promote our opportunity overseas to inbound travelers, the investments made in BC will benefit us for the long term and you can bet that the Western Province of BC is on the radar screen for many visitors after the dreamy images of the coastal range on clear sunny days at Whistler!

Pent up demand: Both post Olympics and post banking downfall demand is high. Mostly because decisions have been put on hold. We are seeing the recreational market rebounding very strongly which is a very good indicator of confidence. The residential housing market will always provide a background count of transactions by necessity in a quiet market, but the recreational spend disappears. It is somewhat of a barometric high pressure ridge to see it return so strongly this year. My office has already concluded close to all of last years volume in the first three months of this year.

The concern is limited to how deep is the demand. Is it simply a pent up demand where buyers had put investment money into cash prior to the banking problems and then delayed a decision until now, or are we seeing a true sign of economic growth? My personal opinion is that it is more of the former and less of the latter. I do not see interest rates changing too much in the next year. We will still have incredibly low rates and the market is offering a wonderful choice of well priced properties to buyers at the moment which is driving the demand. Certainly a well priced property on the market today will attract interest immediately and will likely have a short sales cycle. Expect to see more good offers as the year continues.

I would suspect we will have a very bullish run up to the introduction of the HST in July at which point some of the steam will be taken out of the market despite the governments rhetoric that it is designed to benefit business. What benefits business is consumption of products, when the prices of the products goes up, consumption goes down!

Where are the gains: This is the interesting part of the market to me. Most segments of the market are up substantially over last year's sales numbers, but what stands out is acreage sales which were quite stagnant last year. Latest stats show the sales numbers up 900% and sales values up almost 40%. Another area showing substantial gains is waterfront sales which were non existent in the first quarter of 2009 and are now showing signs of positive gains and momentum. Predictably, once more, the new homeowner segment has maintained its momentum with current housing and mortgage values. The traffic jam, if any, is in the middle of the market. If you are considering a property in the $450k to $850k price range, be sure to have a frank discussion with your REALTOR about where your value needs to be to reach your objective. If you need a sale, pricing is critical.

With some good fortune, we will see this momentum continue gradually through the year with only a slight setback with HST... only time will tell.


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About the author...

For the past twenty years Mark has been involved in real estate development and consulting and is currently a REALTOR with Realty Executives in Kelowna.

His column, brings a unique perspective on what may be important to us in the future as we come to grips with fast paced change in a world that few people barely recognize.

His influences come from the various travels he undertakes as an Adventurer, Philanthropist and Keynote Speaker. More information can be found on Mark at his website www.markjenningsbates.com

 




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The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.


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