Silence of the lambs
by
Contributed - Story:
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May 8, 2009 / 5:00 am
No not the movie, but in reference to the forum posts that have driven so much confusion and hesitation in the past several months. As I thumbed through the forums today on Castanet, it appears that the negative hype of downward spiraling prices and sales has lost it's steam. Most of the forums are dry of new entries and off topic entries are the order of the day.
Of course if we wait long enough any trend will change. But I would encourage you to dig deep into the posts and see the wildly inaccurate projections that were often made even earlier this year.
Are we out of the woods yet? Not at all in my opinion. We are starting to turn a very long and steady corner and there are plenty of bumps in the road ahead and one minefield in my opinion that I have stated before.
The good news is that reported sales activity is up in many centres across Canada. Not across the board in terms of product type, but we are certainly seeing absorption rates that are better than they have been for several months. Personally, the activity we have seen in the past three months has been better than the previous six months and the Okanagan is seeing a better than average spring lift.
As I write this article, the TSX has just nudged through the 10,000 barrier. In fact, it has been on a steady incline for several weeks without investors continuing to test the "bottom of the market". With some good fortune, we will continue to see these positive gains in our economy. Savvy companies, like Westjet have managed the storm and returned profits on reduced volume. Many companies were not in the same position having extended themselves too far in the past couple of years and then being burdened with debt that they cannot service in this economy.
Many households are living the same experience with some downsizing starting to happen. The positive news that I can relate to is the fact that Albertans are still traveling here in good numbers. The past several weekends have been marked by many red lettered license plates on the roads, in the car parks and at real estate offices across the Okanagan. You did read that correctly... Albertans are coming here and putting offers on properties.
We are seeing the more expensive side of the market starting to move a little easier, there have been multiple offers happening on some of the good value listings and I am hearing of buyers who have missed out on a few properties because they are still taking their time to see if this truly is the bottom of the market.
Only time will tell, but the indications are very positive and we have a lot to be thankful for as a society. The road will be long, and hopefully the inclines in values will be steady and not artificial, but here is the minefield in my opinion... as I have mentioned in previous articles, our economies cannot print the money they have without the risk of artificial inflation. Right now, we are still in a Buyers market phase I believe, however, over the next year to 18 months, the economic recovery will be more evident and combined with the effect of so much extra printed money in circulation, we run the risk of seeing a period of artificial inflation that can see commodities like housing spiral again if only for a period of time before we see another correction.
Is that bad news? Not if you are in a position to invest in some of the good values today, and it means nothing at all to you if you plan to stay in the house you are in for the next ten years... what it does mean is that interest rates will likely recover quite dramatically after a period of them being artificially low prompted by government intervention.
Good news for some, bad news for others, but as in every period of time in our economy there is always an opportunity if you look close enough. I know of many people who have been buying and selling real estate successfully for the past 12 months while many "Chicken Littles" ran around saying the sky is falling. The sky did not fall, but we all personally are aware of the impact the past year has had on our personal lives.