Circus comes to town

Prime minister Trudeau's promise he made in Paris to reduce GHG emissions was identical to the promise Stephen Harper made before he met his demise at the ballot box. 

When environment minister Catherine McKenna came in, she described Harper’s target of 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 as a “floor” she intended to surpass.  Later, she described it as “ambitious” when she realized the miserable floor was going to be the ceiling for the new government. 

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an analysis of global emissions that’s produced by a consortium of scientific research organizations.  Almost all countries use 1990 as the benchmark year for calculations.  According to CAT, the target of 30 per cent below 2005 levels converts to only 14 per cent below 1990 levels.  Significantly, Canada would need to reduce emissions 67 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030 in order to pull our weight in relation to other countries.

The sorely deficient target that was accepted by the Trudeau government means Canada must reduce emissions to 523 megatonnes of carbon (MtCO2) per year.  The newly revealed Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change establishes today’s emissions as 219 MtCO2 over that mark.  To meet the promise made in Paris, Trudeau needed to locate 219 Mt of reductions in the Framework.  So how did he do?    

The government claims reductions of 89 Mt were found through already announced measures regulating HFCs, heavy duty vehicles, and methane; through provincial measures such as the BC Climate Leadership Plan and Saskatchewan’s renewables target; and through international cap and trade credits. 

Although the measures should be closely examined before being accepted as credible, one measure immediately stands out as dodgy.  Critics think Christy Clark’s climate plan is full of holes and will not deliver even half the promised 25 MtCO2 reductions.  Notably, her plan does not take into account any LNG projects.  If BC achieved only half the promised reductions and also built the PNW LNG plant, the BC Climate Leadership Plan would be shot.  

Trudeau’s Framework says further reductions of 86 Mt were discovered through measures described in the Framework itself, including the coal phase-out by 2030, the clean fuel standard, and measures to do with buildings and industry.

The prime minister therefore comes up short 44 MtCO2 to meet his Paris promise.  But problems do not end there. 

When Trudeau announced the approval of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), he said the project was an integral part of the plan to uphold the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions. 

You would expect an integral part of the plan to actually show up in the plan, but the TMX is mentioned nowhere.  Not one of the three recently approved energy projects, PNW LNG, TMX, and Line 3, were accounted for in the Framework.  If all three are built, they will add 41 Mt of carbon pollution every year. 

In addition, the Keystone XL pipeline came back into play when Donald Trump won the election.  It, along with the remaining Canadian project under discussion, the Energy East pipeline, will probably be approved.  If built, they will add a further 65 MtCO2, throwing the country’s carbon budget into a deficit of 150 Mt in total – an amount nearly equal to all the reductions Trudeau identified. 

As days go by, we will hear how the government has performed the magic of meeting emissions reduction targets while allowing emissions-intensive industries to proliferate.  How it’s exercising environmental responsibility while degrading air, land and water.  How it’s honouring First Nations while breaching their rights. 

Clowns are the pegs, said P. T. Barnum, on which the circus is hung.

Dianne Varga