We all know someone who became a first generation millionaire during the last market cycle from 2001 through 2008. It doesn’t take impeccable timing, mountains of cash, or any uncanny business acumen. All it takes is a simple plan to follow and the discipline and guts to see the plan through. That’s it, there’s no magic here. Thousands of millionaires will be made right here in the valley in the next seven years, so let's make sure we’re on that list! So how do we ensure we aren’t on the sidelines this time around the merry-go-round?
The real estate market isn’t nearly as complex as we make it out to be. It does the same thing over and over, it goes Slump-Recovery-Boom! And then Slump-Recovery-Boom! And around and around we go. It’s also not hard to determine where we are in the cycle because we know what has already transpired. For example, we know that Kelowna Real Estate was in a slump from 2008 until 2013. We have all read the headlines by now that sales are up, inventory is down, and prices have started to head upwards. So what do you think might happen next?
So here is the plan, it involves purchasing five very ordinary houses in good areas that have legal suites. The suites are important, as without one, a house will rarely cover itself, let alone cash flow. The ideal property is three beds up and two down as these rent typically for $1500 up and $1,000 down in good areas bringing in a total of $2,500. The common two up, two down will work, it will just bring in about $2,100. Mortgage payments on a house like this will be $1,514 with 20% down, $1,703 with 10% down, and $1,798 with 5%. Each of these assumes a 25-year amortization and an interest rate of prime. As you can see, no matter how you finance these typical Okanagan homes, they will cover themselves and then some.
The additional cash-flow can be spent at your whim, used to pay down additional mortgage principal, or my favorite, wisely invested into the property to raise its value even more. I'm talking about new floors, paint, bathrooms, kitchens, this kind of thing. These little additional bonuses are not even considered in the chart below, neither are rental increases, but I don’t want to be too technical. So let's now take a look at a simple grid that shows what happens to our investments as we move through this next seven year recovery-boom phase.
So now it’s the year 2022, we’ve had a good run, factor in the down payments invested, we have a net worth in real estate in excess of 1.5 million. We could sell everything, pay some capital gains tax and be left with a little over a million dollars. Then we could sit on the sidelines and wait for a market correction, pick up great deals when no one else is buying, and put this whole plan on steroids when the market goes Slump-Recovery- Boom all over again. It would have been like having a million dollars cash back in 2009 and wisely buying up all the fire sales that were popping up all around you. Could you imagine what you would have done with a million in cash during the last big correction? Literally a fortune at your feet!
This article isn’t about hindsight however, it’s about foresight. Those that have it will be a millionaire seven years from now and a multi-millionaire 15-20 years from now. And all it takes is the first step.
If you’re a first time buyer, good news - you can start building your portfolio with 5 or 10% down. Those of you that are little more established will need 20% down. For this there are many options; borrow against your primary residence, or bring on a money partner, private mortgage, vendor take backs, the list goes on.
Now as an important side note, it’s crucial to choose a bank that will use rental income offsetting, so that each property you add to the portfolio doesn’t make the next more difficult to finance. I have found that TD is currently the most favorable to the investor when taking rental income into account.
I want to conclude this by noting that what you’ve just read is not inherently risky, anyone you know who has ever lost money in real estate, including myself, has done so by speculating on real estate. We are not speculators! We are investors, and we are hunting cash flow. It is this cash flow that recession proofs any portfolio, so that even if you decide not to sell off at the end of the next cycle, your investments will continue to be paid down and yield a return. I am speaking from experience on this. I followed this simple plan to create a seven figure net holdings in real estate the last time around, and I’m excited to do it all over again this time. It’s an exciting ride, I recommend being on it.