Canada is in danger of losing a major international battle over its management of polar bears with former allies reversing their position and supporting a proposed ban on cross-border trade in parts of the animals.
At stake is a growing and lucrative business for Inuit hunters, who sell the skins as a byproduct of their traditional hunt. A defeat would also be a "warning" to Canada's self-image as a responsible steward of the mighty Arctic predator.
Early next month, countries from around the world will meet in Bangkok to consider changes to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. Among the proposals is one from the United States that would place polar bear hides, heads or other parts in the same category as elephant ivory, forbidding their cross-border sale.
Canada fought off a similar proposal in 2010 with help from the European Union, which voted in a bloc to defeat it.
Now, major countries, including the United Kingdom and Netherlands, have announced they support a ban. Russia, which has polar bears, also agrees with the U.S.
Germany, Austria, Belgium and Poland are on-side with the change. Former opponents of the tougher rules, such as Spain, Greece and France, are now undecided. Meetings last week intended to develop a united EU position ended in deadlock.
The best Canada can now hope for is for the EU to abstain, said Dan Ashe, a director with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
"We have enough votes that the EU can't oppose (our proposal). There aren't enough votes left for the EU to get to a position of opposition."
Canada, the only country that allows trade in polar bear parts, has long maintained that bear populations are healthy and remain at between 20,000 and 25,000. Canadian officials say the real threat to the bears is climate change, not international trade. They say restricting commerce wouldn't reduce the number of bears killed because a ban wouldn't affect traditional or sport hunts.
"(The U.S. proposal) would have no conservation benefit, but would harm the livelihoods of our Inuit peoples," an Environment Canada spokeswoman said in an email.
Canada points out that environmental groups, including the World Wildlife Fund, oppose the proposal. So do international wildlife monitoring organizations.