Business
Canadian bank profits could drop
Aug 26, 2012 / 1:00 pm
Canada's biggest banks have weathered the economic downturn better than their peers, but analysts expect that tightened consumer lending will add pressure to profits in the third quarter, and could be a harbinger of further challenges.
The banks are set to report their quarterly results starting Tuesday, in what could be one of the shortest earnings periods on record.
Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) and Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) are scheduled to report first, while the rest of the big banks wrap it up two days later, on Thursday.
Stonecap Securities analyst Brad Smith suggests the shorter window in which the earnings reports are released could serve as an opportunity for executives to recognize some of the setbacks faced this year, and face less direct scrutiny.
"While we do not think ourselves superstitious, we do believe that, in general, good news is best savoured slowly while bad news is best delivered quickly," he wrote in a note.
Overall, analysts see the banks heading into a period of lower profit growth that could extend into next year.
CIBC World Markets analyst Rob Sedran expects that overall the banks will post a flat sequential growth of 3.8 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the same time last year.
Sedran said the credit card market is leading a slowdown in the country's consumer credit levels as more Canadians move away from high-interest credit cards. Mortgage activity is also starting to moderate, he said.
The expectations fall in step with comments from the banks earlier this year that signalled a decline in mortgage lending.
A report from TransUnion, released Thursday, showed that consumer debt is actually growing, but mostly due to higher auto loans, while debt on cards and lines of credit was flat.
On the upside, Scotiabank is expected to perform better than most of its peers, helped by international operations that could soften any negative impact in Canada.
Banks that could underwhelm include Royal Bank (TSX:RY), which has a heavy weight in its trading division compared to other Canadian banks, and CIBC, which is grappling with marketshare.
In terms of dividends, several banks could be due to boost their payouts, in particular Scotiabank, CIBC (TSX:CM), and TD Bank (TSX:TD), suggested Barclays analyst John Aiken.
"We continue to believe that dividend hikes will mimic earnings growth, as the banks seek to balance market expectations against the pending new capital regime," he wrote in a note.

Read more Business News

Today's Market
| S&P TSX | 12629.80 | -122.70 |
| S&P CDNX | 931.53 | -10.55 |
| DJIA | 15227.33 | -79.84 |
| Nasdaq | 3498.965 | +33.722 |
| S&P 500 | 1646.67 | -8.68 |
| Gold | 1385.40 | +17.80 |
| Lumber | 316.00 | -4.50 |
| Oil | 96.05 | -0.11 |
| Natural Gas | 4.179 | -0.007 |
| CDN Dollar | 0.9666 | N/A |
_
Okanagan Companies
| Sun Rype | 6.15 | +0.05 |
| Pacific Safety | 0.12 | +0.07 |
| Knighthawk | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| QHR Technologies Inc | 0.58 | -0.02 |
| Cantex | 0.015 | 0.00 |
| Anavex Life Sciences | 0.50 | -0.02 |
| Metalex Ventures | 0.085 | 0.00 |
| Russel Metals | 26.50 | -0.22 |
| Copper Mountain Mining | 1.72 | -0.05 |
| Colorado Resources | 1.42 | +0.03 |
| ReliaBrand Inc | 0.13 | 0.00 |
_

John Thomson's I Didn't Know That!I vowed when I started this column twenty-five years ago that I wasn’t going to write about politics and I have held the line until today but this item is really about questions. I looked back o...
Tips for a stress-free summer moveThe majority of Canadians prefer to make their big move during the summer season. There are a variety of reasons for choosing this time of year: it is easier to transport boxes in non-icy condition...
Income properties for sustained recoveryIt appears as though more people these days are looking for an investment in real estate which offers cash flow returns. The fundamentals of cash flow type properties had been turned upsi...
_
- Loonie weakens as commodities fall
- The buck is up - a little
- Cheap deadly cars made in Brazil
- Bangladesh to raise wages
- Open for business
- 'Gatsby' earns $51.1M, 'Iron Man' $72.5M
- Chrysler recalls nearly 470,000 SUVs
- Bell not interested in selling more Astral
- Loonie dips over a quarter
- Taxman and the offshore tax havens
- Sharktopus views turns on YouTube TV
- Social media makes Disney blink

Showcase your business like no other marketing can and Join the growing number of businesses that get more customers.
Learn more here













