Drier, milder El Nino winter

Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

A standard winter El Nino pattern. 

It could be a warmer and drier winter in the B.C. Interior this year, with a moderate El Nino in the forecast.

El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which involves a warming of the equatorial surface ocean water due to wind pattern changes. This warmer water impacts global weather patterns.

Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, says they're confident we'll see the impact of El Nino in the coming months in B.C.'s Interior. 

“Confidence is fairly high that we're going to have at least a weak El Nino, but I think it's going to end up to be moderate in strength as we get into winter,” Anderson said.

While the effect could bring more storm systems and snow to the north of the province, and south into California, the mountains in the south of B.C may be drier and milder come January and February.

“Usually, we have one jet stream directing storms off the Pacific into British Columbia during a normal winter,” Anderson said.

“It's going to split it into two jet streams, and we're going to have one jet stream most likely directed into northern British Columbia and another probably down into California. So that leaves much of Southern B.C. drier than normal.”

The last time the province saw an El Nino effect was three years ago, but many Interior resorts still celebrated successful seasons. That year, Big White was still seeing fresh powder days during its closing week in April.

Last winter was also predicted to be an El Nino year, but it failed to materialize. Anderson says the chances of that happening again are “extremely slim.”

This year, Anderson predicts December will be the Interior's best chance for significant snowfall, followed by a drier and milder than normal start to 2019.