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David Allard

Markets swing on fiscal cliff

Big Picture

Markets swing on fiscal cliff negotiations

The direction of political negotiations in Washington to avert the fiscal cliff was the main driver behind North American stock market movements this week.

On Wednesday alone, the Dow notched an intraday swing of more than 200 points – losing more than 100 in the morning and ending plus 100 at close – as the read on negotiations moved from negative to positive. The markets are expected to continue see-sawing as Democrats and Republicans float proposals to deal with the series of tax cuts and spending increases due to go take hold January 2013.

Almost obscured from view were US economic numbers which were biased to the upside over the four-day period covered in this report. Durable goods orders – a sign of business confidence – were better than expected for October, a much-watched home prices index rose for the sixth consecutive month and the all-important consumer confidence gauge increased to its highest level since February 2008. And on Thursday, a revised US GDP number for Q3 came in at 2.7% versus an initial read of 2%. The near three-quarter percentage point upward revision was anticipated by economists, which tamped enthusiasm. Enthusiasm was further tempered by expectations for lower Q4 growth primarily due to Hurricane Sandy.

Greece, meantime, dodged another bullet as euro-zone finance ministers came to agreement to fund its near-term debt with another tranche of new money. But more tough decisions lie ahead as the country’s economy continues to deteriorate making it near impossible to cut into its mountain of debt.

Markets

Lots of action, little progress

Markets were little changed over the four-day period despite the gyrations up and down. In Canada, the TSX shed 11 pts. from Monday open through Thursday close to end at 12,202. It was a similar story south of the border where the Dow rose 12 pts. to close at 13,021 and the S&P 500 moved 6 pts. to finish at 1,409.

Our Recommendation

Look through the fiscal cliff debate and buy equity market weakness

  • Equities. Steve Uzielli, Portfolio Manager, Portfolio Advisory Group wrote: “our investment thesis is supported by improving U.S. economic momentum, including better than expected corporate profits for Q3, which supports our pro-equity bias. We continue to recommend buying on instances of negative headline-driven equity market weakness.”
  • Fixed income. Andrew Mystic, Associate Director, PAG, suggests “given the Bank of Canada’s recent tone, investors should begin to re-evaluate the duration of their portfolios - particularly given the relatively low rate environment and its potential impact on value if rates reverse course. Term Call – we no longer see value in the mid-to-long end of the curve and recommend investors stay short at this time. Sector Call – underweight Canada, overweight Municipals, Provincials and Corporates. Currency Call – we recommend Canadian investors remain in Canadian dollars for their fixed income holdings. Alternative Strategies – marketweight high yield, marketweight Emerging Markets Debt, underweight inflation protected debt.”
  • Portfolio strategy. Scotiabank GBM Portfolio Strategist Vincent Delisle says: “U.S. growth should accelerate as we enter 2013 based on the housing renaissance, energy boom, and rising exports.”

 

This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee of ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (“SCI”), but the data selection, analysis and views expressed herein are solely those of the author and not those of SCI. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor SCI can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your investment advisor, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. SCI and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication in contravention of this notice. All performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance.



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About the Author

Jeff Stathopulos, CIM, CFP, Portfolio Manager

After two decades in the financial services industry, Jeff's experience as an advisor and branch manager define his approach to providing customized financial planning, estate planning, and managed income solutions. Key to this approach is a thorough understanding of the unique challenges and goals that exist in every client's life. He is a partner in Navigation Wealth Management.

Jeff holds the Certified Financial Planning and Chartered Investment Manager designations. He lives in Kelowna with his wife Tanya, and their two (almost adult) enterprising children.

 

You can contact Jeff by email at [email protected]

Website:  www.yourlifeyourplan.ca




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The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.



These articles are for information purposes only. It is recommended that individuals consult with a financial advisor before acting on any information contained in this article. The opinions stated are not necessarily those of Scotia Capital Inc. or The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.


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