Photo: Samantha Holomay

ECCC has called for warmer than normal temperatures for the next three months but conditions are harder to predict due to neutral weather patterns

This summer’s weather forecast is being called “especially tricky to predict” because of the neutrality of weather patterns.

Canada is currently in a neutral phase, which means it’s neither in El Niño nor La Niña, which is typically used to determine future weather patterns. El Niño brings in warm air from the western Pacific Ocean over to the eastern Pacific. La Niña does the complete opposite thing, bringing in cold water and air from the eastern Pacific Ocean.

As a result, it's nearly impossible to predict the weather in a neutral phase, but for the Kootenay region — especially Nelson — current predictions show that the summer weather could be warmer-than-usual this season. But just how much warmer that will be is still up in the air.

“June is typically the wettest month across the Kootenay region, so it pretty much sets the tone for the summer,” said Colin Fong, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

Nelson’s normal temperature for the summer months is roughly 28 C, and as it stands right now, the temperature predictions for this summer season are slightly above the normal, and can be expected to be two to three degrees hotter than usual.

Fong explained that “normal weather” refers to the average weather (temperature or rainfall) over the last 30 years. The average is updated every decade. Currently, Nelson is below its average precipitation rate for April, currently sitting at 25 millimetres while the average rainfall is 60 mm.

“Unless we get some kind of major rain event, I don't see anything that will catch us up to that normal of 60 mm,” said Fong.

There are thresholds that ECCC uses to determine whether a lack or an increase of rainfall calls for concern. For example, if Nelson typically gets 100 mm of rain in June, then anything between 80-120 mm would still count as normal.

More precipitation in the wetter months could help dampen the wildfire season if it is not followed by a period of heat, which would allow for the ground to remain moist for a longer period.

The national forecast map shows high confidence in warmer predictions, but it is important to note that these forecasts are averaged across all hours of the day over three months.

Photo: Environment and Climate Change Canada

This map shows Canada's current temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts

The darker the red on the map, the higher the confidence in the forecast. The southeastern portion of the Kootenay region appears to be all red, while the west and central portions are red and orange.

Fong said on June 1, a more detailed summer outlook will be released and could reveal a more all-encompassing look at the summer weather patterns. Although he added that it doesn't mean that the anticipated warmer weather isn’t accurate, just that there are limitations. So while there will still be cold, dry mornings and rainy stretches, the overall trends point to a hot summer.

While April has been below seasonal temperatures for much of B.C., meteorologists are keeping an eye on a semi-permanent high-pressure system in the southwestern U.S. If that weather system were to permeate up to B.C., it could bring heat back into the region for the fifth summer in a row.

Fong said that despite the picture not being crystal clear, people should still prepare for the heat as ECCC has called for above seasonal temperatures across the country for the next three months.

“Despite what the forecast says, we can still get all types of extreme weather that we need to be prepared for. Heat events, drought or wildfires.”

Overall, this year's weather prediction is a complicated one, but for Nelson, early signs are pointing to a warmer summer.