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In 'Here and there', John Thomson covers market conditions, oil prices and grocery retailers. (Photo: Flickr user, juniorvelo)
In 'Here and there', John Thomson covers market conditions, oil prices and grocery retailers. (Photo: Flickr user, juniorvelo)

Here and there
by John Thomson - Story: 43291
Nov 24, 2008 / 5:00 am

The market conditions continue to be balanced and supported by the economic fundamentals of strong employment, immigration and historically low interest rates. Economists predict it may be 2010 before we once again experience the robust conditions of the past. With the Okanagan no longer being the booming market it once was, buyers may soon have the upper hand. It’s been more of a seller’s market over the past few years but people looking to buy a home are beginning to find more options on the market, resulting in a balanced market. Experts remind us that real estate, like the economy is cyclical in nature and the market will eventually balance out again. A balanced market is typically a 6-month supply of inventory.
The easing Canadian market differs from the U.S. Prices to the south of us were driven up by speculative investment and relaxed lending standards. Canadian resale housing prices, especially in B.C. and Alberta, climbed due to strong job growth and low interest rates. Downward pressure on home prices is expected to ease by the second quarter of 2009, as an increase in affordability and consumer confidence induces a modest growth in sales.
Two major events have happened in October, but it's uncertain how that has impacted MLS sales in the market. Mortgage changes took effect Oct. 15, which include the requirement for buyers to put down at least five per cent for a down payment. The federal government also implemented a reduction of government-backed mortgages from maximum amortization periods of 40 years to 35 years. Another factor in the current MLS sales is the "tremendous erosion" in equity values on the stock market. So people who were saving for a down payment will likely have to wait for those equities to rebound.

--Rob Marack, Royal LePage

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When oil prices started skyrocketing, consumers didn't just feel it at the gas pump. They felt it at the airport, the florist and even when they got their kitchen sink fixed, as businesses across a number of industries tacked on fuel surcharges. Now, since the price of crude oil has fallen more than 50% from its high last July, it’s only natural to assume those surcharges are on the way out, right?

Wrong. Yes, some businesses have axed the extra fees, but plenty of others aren't cutting consumers much slack. Their argument: Oil prices are still cutting into their profits. For consumers, it's a tough argument to swallow. As we feared, now that the price of gas and oil has gone down, we are not seeing the removal of the a la carte surcharges, which is an indicator of the fact that companies were using them as a way to raise prices.
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If you have never been to Trader Joe’s grocery store, deli, bakery, liquor and wine store in the U.S. then you must try it the next time you’re south. If you go south for a shopping weekend through Langley to the Aldergrove border crossing you will find one in Lynnwood and Bellingham. There are many in the state. We started shopping at Trader Joe’s in LaJolla.

Undoubtedly, Trader Joe's success rests on the strength of its private label products, which comprise, according to some estimates, about 2,000 products or about 70 percent of its sales. The rest of its selection, primarily in the produce, prepared meals, baked goods and dairy departments, is filled in with national and regional brands that vary by location. But it's the products that bear the Trader Joe's brand, and the variations of that brand, that are responsible for the cult following the retailer enjoys.

Trader Joe's employs savvy buyers and scouts who are always on the lookout for products that fit the chain's philosophy, as well as the company's commitment to sustainability, organics and innovation. Consumers seem to respond to the brand almost as if it were a real person. And because they see Trader Joe's as a person, they trust that the private label products are safe, organic and sustainable - and most importantly, taste good. Consumers think they can relax because T.J.'s has done all the research.

While one of retailer's most successful products has been its Charles Shaw wines, the press refers to it as two buck Chuck. It is a big draw. I have watched them deliver the wine at 10am and see it sell out almost immediately and that was everyday.

However, some weak spots are produce and fresh-prepared meals, a place where competitors such as Whole Foods shine. To some extent, those challenges are related to infrastructure and distribution. A universal problem for all retailer private label programs - how to compete with heavily marketed national brands when it comes to beverages, particularly carbonated soft drinks. Packaging is also seen as an area in which the retailer could really improve.

I communicated with their head office about Canada and asked if there would be a future for this chain in the Canadian market. They really were not looking although there had been inquiries before. This is not a franchise situation as the company owns all the stores.

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Health magazine, one of the most respected consumer publications focused on health and wellness, named Safeway one of "Healthiest Grocery Stores" in the November 2008 issue. Safeway was ranked Number 2 in the top-10 list of what the magazine called "standout supermarket chains" that are "leading the way to healthier food shopping."

When Safeway did the remodel of the stores in the Okanagan and built the new one in Penticton it was all Lifestyle. The two Kelowna stores and the one in Vernon became Lifestyle stores and they did a good job of it. Their bakery and deli are exceptional.





About The Author...

John Thomson is the Okanagan's pre-eminent business columnist writing his column, Rumours and Things, for over 19 years. Plugged in to the valley's who's who, John keeps his readers coming back for more with his straight talk and optimistic perspective on where we are headed next.

When John is not writing his column, he runs an eleven year old think tank called the Executive Roundtable and holds his popular "Thomson Presents" quarterly business speaker seminars.

Have a comment, question, or tip for John? Email John at:

john.thomson@castanet.net

or send him a fax at 764-8255.






The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.



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