Castanet
Rallies and Reversals

Any 'Gold Bugs' out there?

The closing spot price for Gold on Friday, June 20, 2008 was $902.30.

The Gold sector index closed on Friday, June 20, 2008 at $316.84. Some of the Canadian Companies you may recognize in this sector are Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Barrick Gold Corporation, Eldorado Gold Corporation, GoldCorp Inc., Kinross Gold Corporation and Yamana Gold Inc.

The high for the Gold sector index over the last year was $390.93 on March 17, 2008 and the low was $240.42 reached on August 16, 2007. From the trough (low) to the peak (high) that represents an increase of 53.6% for the Gold sector vs. the TSX, which was flat at .8% and the S&P 500, which dropped –9.5%. Year-to-date the Gold sector is up 2.2% if you measure from December 31, 2007 close to June 20, 2008 vs. the TSX, which is up 5.5%, and the S&P 500, which is down –10.2% over the same period.

The chart is not giving us a buy or sell signal. The price of gold is consolidating with the highs getting lower and the lows getting higher. It is trading within a tighter range with no breakout signals. The current price crossed the 50-day moving average on March 18th, 2008 and since then the 50-day moving average has trended downward. We would be looking to see a reversal in this trend to become buyers.

Fundamentally, we have the potential of: inflation, devaluation of the US dollar and financial crisis, which are all positives for Gold. Watch for any reversal in the technicals with key indicators being the current price crossing above the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average.

If you want to do some further research refer to recent articles written by John Mauldin in “Outside the Box” where he features Gold analysts.

The closing spot price for Gold on Friday, June 20, 2008 was $902.30.
The closing spot price for Gold on Friday, June 20, 2008 was $902.30.
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Posted: Jun 25, 2008 / 4:30 am
Story# 40175  /  Contributed





About the Authors

David Allard David Allard has 16 years experience in the financial services industry. He specializes in creating and managing integrated and comprehensive wealth management solutions for affluent clients. Most recently David was a Portfolio Manager for a leading Canadian investment management and private banking firm. He graduated from the University of Manitoba with a degree in Economics. He also completed an MBA degree. David is a member of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Institute and a founding member and past president of the Okanagan CFA Society. David resides in the Okanagan with his family. His interests include golf, tennis, mountain biking, skiing and triathlons. Over the years, David has volunteered with the Canadian Cancer Society, United Way and Big Brothers.

Email: david_allard@scotiamcleod.com

Website: http://www.yourlifeyourplan.ca






The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.



These articles are for information purposes only. It is recommended that individuals consult with a financial advisor before acting on any information contained in this article. The opinions stated are not necessarily those of Scotia Capital Inc. or The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.



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