Photo: The Canadian Press

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney 

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says forecast models for the COVID-19 crisis in Alberta predict anywhere from 400 to 6,600 deaths in the months to come.

Kenney, in a televised address Tuesday, said where the numbers go depends largely on the behaviour of Albertans.

"I want this to end as soon as you do," said Kenney.

"But we simply cannot risk letting the virus loose in Alberta.

"That would create a public health catastrophe, which would force an even more stringent lockdown in the future, leaving our economy even further battered."

Alberta is under strict public health orders that clamp down on non-essential businesses and restrict public gatherings to no more than 15 people.

Kenney said those orders will be in place at least until the end of the month, with social distancing rules likely in place until the end of May.

He said the situation is fluid, and changes and decisions will be made depending on the rates of infections and fatalities.

The province is working with two models: a probable and elevated scenario.

Under the probable scenario, a peak number of infections is expected by mid-May, with as many as 800,000 infections by the end of summer and between 400 and 3,100 deaths.

Under the elevated scenario, infections would peak earlier, at the start of May, leading to as many as one million infections and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.

Alberta reported 25 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, bringing the total to 1,373. There were two more deaths, bringing that number to 26.

Alberta, with a population of 4.4 million, has completed more than 67,000 tests, putting it among the global leaders in per-capita testing.

"We are confident that our health system will be able to cope, and that we have the supplies on hand to get the job done," said Kenney.