Photo: The Canadian Press

Despite Republican assurances that North Carolina's "bathroom bill" isn't hurting the economy, the law limiting LGBT protections will cost the state more than $3.76 billion in lost business over a dozen years, according to an Associated Press analysis.

Over the past year, North Carolina has suffered financial hits ranging from scuttled plans for a PayPal facility that would have added an estimated $2.66 billion to the state's economy to a cancelled Ringo Starr concert that deprived a town's amphitheatre of about $33,000 in revenue. The blows have landed in the state's biggest cities as well as towns surrounding its flagship university, and from the mountains to the coast.

North Carolina could lose hundreds of millions more because the NCAA is avoiding the state, usually a favoured host. Last week, the NCAA said North Carolina sites won't be considered for championship events from 2018 to 2022 "absent any change" in the law, also known as House Bill 2, which it views as discrimination. North Carolina cities, schools and other groups have offered more than 130 bids for such events.

Republican legislative leaders and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper have said they've reached an agreement to end the law, in hopes of removing the obstacles to expanding business and attracting sporting events. The proposal was set for debate Thursday afternoon. It was unclear whether the plan has enough votes, or — if it passes — whether it would be enough to satisfy the NCAA or other businesses. Gay-rights groups want nothing less than a full repeal.

The AP analysis putting the price tag at more than $3.76 billion — compiled through interviews and public records requests — represents the largest reckoning yet of how much the law, passed one year ago, could cost the state. The law excludes gender identity and sexual orientation from statewide antidiscrimination protections, and requires transgender people to use restrooms corresponding to the sex on their birth certificates in many public buildings.

Still, AP's tally is likely an underestimation of the law's true costs. The count includes only data obtained from businesses and government officials regarding projects that cancelled or relocated because of HB2. A business project was counted only if AP determined through public records or interviews that HB2 was why it pulled out.

The AP also tallied the losses of dozens of conventions, sporting events and concerts through figures from local officials. The AP didn't attempt to quantify anecdotal reports that lacked hard numbers, or forecast the loss of future conventions.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan — who leads the largest company based in North Carolina — said he's spoken privately to business leaders who took projects elsewhere because of the controversy, and he fears more decisions like that are being made quietly.

"Companies are moving to other places, because they don't face an issue that they face here," he told a World Affairs Council of Charlotte luncheon last month.