What next on NAFTA?

Photo: The Canadian Press

President Donald Trump is applauded as he addresses a joint session of Congress on Tuesday.

What happens next for North American trade talks? It's not just Canadians and Mexicans who'd like to know. So would members of the U.S. Congress, who actually have a legal role in trade talks.

The American law allowing fast-track approval for trade deals sets out two necessary steps involving lawmakers: first, the president must give Congress 90 days' notice before entering into negotiations, then must consult members.

The Canadian Press surveyed key lawmakers in an attempt to gauge the next steps. It did so this week because the U.S. Senate approved Wilbur Ross for commerce secretary — and Ross will be involved in NAFTA negotiations, says President Donald Trump.

It's neither Ross's legal role to lead trade negotiations, nor to consult Congress. Those responsibilities fall to another cabinet member — the U.S. trade representative.

But Ross's colleague is having a rough time getting confirmed. Robert Lighthizer's approval as U.S. Trade Representative could be delayed for months, amid partisan stalling and because past legal work for foreign governments means he needs a special waiver from Congress.

To top it all off, the U.S. Senate committee tasked to deal with trade is currently slammed with major projects — the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in 41 years, and reforms to the Obamacare health system.

So what might happen now?

"I have no idea. I like NAFTA, just what it is," said Republican John McCain.

Will NAFTA negotiations start in a few months? Or even this year?

"I don't have any information about when, or what process will be used," said Republican Mike Crapo, a member of the Senate finance committee.

Canadian trade lawyer Mark Warner says on one hand, Trump could proceed quickly, put Ross in charge and view the USTR confirmation as a legal formality, because the office already has an acting director. On the other, he said there are good reasons to wait.

Congress is already tied up with major projects — and one affects the other. For example, Warner said the White House might want to see what tax plan Congress approves, and whether it deals with trade through import-export adjustments.

And Trump has said he wants to see something else before a final tax plan — changes to Obamacare, which will have a big effect on public finances.