I recently had the privilege of speaking at the mayor's state of the city address.
Amid the optimism and seemingly endless growth and opportunity, I wanted to deliver a dose of realism to the group as we move through a predictable cycle.
There’s a fortune to be made in real estate if we detach from the emotion and become strategic and proactive in our approach.
This article is an expansion on what I shared with the group. It’s precisely what I am doing inside my own portfolio.
At my firm we are tracking all 17 market drivers and a dozen different market influencers so that we know exactly where we are in the Kelowna real estate cycle, and more importantly, what’s coming next.
Since the market always moves through three phases in the same order—boom, slump, recovery—by pinpointing where we are in the cycle, it allows us to know where we are heading next.
In tracking the financial, demographic and emotional drivers, the data tells us that we are still in the early-mid stage of the boom.
Strong, inward migration, a crazy construction market (anyone building a house right now?) and a healthy first-time buyer market are all-indicative of early stage boom.
How long does the boom last? No one knows for sure; however, my prediction is that this boom has a fair bit of runway.
And I’m not just saying that; I’ve personally taken on multiple development projects that will take me well into 2018 and I sleep like a baby at night.
Anytime you say the word boom, 20 per cent of people hear bubble.
These words are far from synonymous.
A boom is an amazing thing for an economy; a bubble can have devastating consequences. Since fear sells in the media and a large percentage get their opinion from the media, it’s no wonder people are quick to throw around the bubble word.
So here are a handful of bullets you can use in a debate with anyone that tries to tell you we are heading towards another crash.
First, our market is not speculative; in fact, CMHC recently published a stat that in 2007, the height of our last boom, there were five times as many people purchasing with the intent to resell within a year.
Speculation is everyone becoming a flipper or a condo high-rise investor with dollar signs in their eyes.
During our last boom, our labour market was in trouble, we were losing all of our skilled youth to the Alberta oil boom without much to attract young talent to our region.
Now, we are seeing a large diversity in new jobs created in the tech and film sector along with good paying jobs in health care and construction.
Tight lending is what will truly save us from ourselves.
Anyone that’s tried to get a mortgage recently will know what I’m talking about.
To say the underwriting process has become “thorough” would be a contender for understatement of the year.
Contrast that with the end of our last boom in 2007; we had zero down, 40-year amortization, and stated income lending. This basically meant if you could fog a mirror, you were likely approved.
What we have now is healthy growth driven by solid economic fundamentals. I’m not saying the party will continue forever, though.
As affordability is diminished, and developers push new inventory out in droves, the supply and demand will naturally shift the other way.
If you take only one thing from this article, it’s that following every boom is a slump.
Once you accept that, you can begin to be strategic and take some proactive steps to ensure that you are prepared to capitalize on the market when it does normalize and enter the slump.
As I’ve written in my articles for years, the slump is where fortunes are truly made.
How will you know when? The early stages of a slump are very subtle and can be easily missed if you drink too much of the real estate Kool-Aid.
Things to be watching for are:
Overbuilding and oversupply – If inventory gets much higher than eight months of inventory it means conditions have shifted in favour of the buyer.
Vacancy rates up and rental rates down – If vacancy rates edge up toward four per cent, this signals a shift in the cycle.
Fear and greed – When the predominate emotion driving real estate transactions becomes fear based, rather than opportunistic.
So what do you do to be in a position to do some serious damage when the market does turn?
Over the next year or so, if you have investment property, sell anything that doesn’t cash flow.
Just take your money and run.
If the property value continues to rise for a bit, who cares?
You can never get hurt leaving a little meat on the bone for the next guy.
Do this before the capital gains exemption disappears after changes by our government
Take advantage of the profits in your primary residence by accessing them on a line of credit. This capital will come in handy when there are hot deals again and no buyers to compete with. Finish your reno projects and get the home appraised by your banker, there’s likely a large chunk of change available to you.
If you are up for a move or a change of lifestyle, this is what we call a downsizers market.
Take some tax-free capital gain, put the money in the bank and shrink your footprint.
Some people might even opt to rent for a period of time leaving them no personal exposure to a falling market.
No downside, only opportunity.
If you purchase Kelowna real estate in 2017, make sure that it cash flows by at least $300 per month, per unit.
This will stress test your investment against rising interest or decreased rents.
To insulate yourself from both of these further, consider purchasing three-bedroom units since there will be a zero vacancy for them for years to come.
When financing your purchase, consider locking in to five-year terms or longer; it’s cheap peace of mind.
There you have it, its cash in or cash up.
No magic here, just some good solid real estate advice that you can use to create multi-generational wealth or, at the very least, make sure you don’t get caught swimming naked when the tide goes out.
For the scorecard we use to determine what time it is on the Cycle Clock, email us at [email protected].
If you have questions about the value of a particular piece of property you own, use this online market analysis tool.
Photo: Getty Images
As the landscape of investment real estate continues to get more and more competitive, and as we move through the boom phase of the cycle, I find myself in hot pursuit of the next great opportunity.
For the last five years, I’ve touted duplexes as the best ROI, but people have caught on; lately there are so few for sale, and the ones that do sell are going for top dollar, thus suppressing the returns.
I love apartment buildings even more, but try to find one for sale. They are like finding a unicorn right now.
So what's left? And more importantly, what is going to perform for the average investor over the next 10 years?
The answer to this burning question can be found by doing a deep dive into the main drivers, the dynamic duo, Supply and our fickle friend Demand.
Local developers are following the Vancouver trend and building these “micro suites” — units as small as 350 square feet in some instances.
In an era of decreasing affordability, it seems like the answer is maximum density. Build ’em small to achieve economies of scale. Even units without parking stalls are flying off the shelves. For now...
The micro suite trend flies in the face of one of the largest market drivers, demographics. Let’s explore this concept for a moment.
There are two groups of buyers who will drive the real estate market for the next two decades.
They just so happen to be the two largest generations in human history, so it behooves us to pay attention to their needs and desires.
The first and wealthier group is the baby boomers. More boomers will reach retirement over the next 10 years than ever before.
In many cases, with retirement comes a decision to downsize. They have money, and they have stuff. Stuff accumulated over the years, and its not going to fit in a micro suite.
I deal with boomers daily and they almost always set their sights on a three-bedroom unit. A recent trend, some boomers are choosing to rent their primary residence and put the cash into investments that finance their retirement.
Regardless, whether they rent or buy, the only inventory they will be interested in looking at will have three bedrooms, lots of storage and a bit of elbow room for when the grand kids come visit.
Then. there are the millennials, Born between 1981 and 2001 they are coming of age and driving the economy in a big way.
A slightly more populous group than the boomers even, there are more people turning 33 (the average age of a first time buyer) for the next 20 years than we’ve ever seen.
The vast majority of these millennials will have tied the knot by this point. Many have kids or plan to in the next few years.
You know what doesn't match well with a life partner and offspring? You guessed it, a micro suite!
Many of this generation will rent on purpose and many will be forced to rent because lending rules are so tight that it's simply out of reach.
Regardless, the one thing they have in common is they need space. In search of space for their budding families, this group will leave the downtown core for the suburbs.
This is my demographic; I deal with them daily in both our sales division and our property management division.
I can tell you first hand, they almost always set up their MLS search for three beds or more and preferably something with a yard.
If the demand is for three bedrooms, why aren’t developers building them? The answer is in the dollars. As of this writing, the average two-bedroom unit will fetch $335/sq ft compared to the average three bedroom that commands only $293/sq ft.
This 15 per cent difference represents the developers entire profit margin. In order to have new development, it needs it be profitable.
In the past few years, the city has given some incentives to developers to increase density in an effort to increase affordable housing in Kelowna.
Now, in a recent release by the city of Kelowna, they have started to incentivize developers to build three bedroom units in response to a study that showed they are in such short supply.
It will be a few years before we see this new inventory hit the market.
You can bet that in the coming years this gap will close, but for now I think exploiting this gap is the move that will pay off handsomely for investors in the years to come.
You have two big markets to serve based on your budget and the tenant profile you are after.
You can go mid to high end in search of a boomer to rent your property for premium dollars.
Seek properties that are newer and in choice locations like the south Pandosy Village or Kelowna’s up and coming North End and you will see excellent appreciation.
The other, more affordable option is to serve the Millennial market. The vast majority are priced out of the “A” locations, and less likely to be brand new, these three bedroom units will cash flow nicely.
There are a few options in the low to mid range three bedroom segment to pay attention to.
Half duplex, townhomes and condos in family neighborhoods like Glenmore, Lower Mission and Rutland. In West Kelowna you have Lakeview heights, Rose Valley and Shannon Lake.
Close to good schools and a short commute, the three bedroom homes in these neighbourhoods will be a hot commodity.
So there you have it, a little forward thinking based on some sound economics.
For a list of well located three-bedroom units that are fully rentable, email me and I’ll send it right over.
Photo: Getty Images
The difference between speculation and Investing
Like clock work, every time the market cycle heats up, the opportunist in us comes out to play.
The slow-and-steady-wins-the-race mentality gets abandoned as people chase the sexier, faster buck.
Great people with admirable intentions to do right by their families look to “invest” some of the freshly minted equity in their home into something that has the potential to pay off big.
The right idea, but lately the conversation has begun to shift from solid, yet agreeably less sexy investments like single-family homes with suites, and duplexes, to this idea of “buying” three units in the latest pre sales condo development.
The thinking is: I could spread out my $150,000 by putting deposits on three units and then in a year or two, when the market has climbed up another 10 per cent each of my $500,000 units are now worth $550,000.
Since I only have a deposit of $50,000 with the developer, I have doubled my money on each unit just for sitting on them for a year.
Is the above scenario possible? Sure. Is it a forgone conclusion? Absolutely not! There are countless other ways this can go, including losing all your investment.
I use that word reluctantly because although the intention of the person was to invest their equity, what they were actually doing is speculating.
Speculation means: Ideas or guesses about something that is not known.
The cruel teacher of experience has taught me that to win big in this real-estate game you must avoid guesswork at all costs.
- Forget about timing the market.
- Forget about trying to predict where pricing is headed, and focus on the fundamentals.
- Focus on positive cash flow.
- Focus on creating your own appreciation through value-adding renovations.
I fell into the trap of speculating the last time the market was hot in 2006/2007.
I put $1.5 million worth of the hottest condo project under contract for $150,000 and had expectations of doubling my money at least.
I wasn’t alone as I waited at the front of a 300 plus person line from 2 a.m. the night before the sales centre opened to the ravenous public.
I lost every penny of my six-figure investment when things went sideways in 2008. And that hurt like a you-know-what.
Contrast that with a duplex I bought around the same time in 2007, at the peak of things.
I put a similar amount down on this property, $140,000. I bought this property because the cash–flow made sense.
I wasn’t trying to guess what the market would do; I was investing my capital into a proven revenue stream.
In this case, it made about $1,000 per month net. Between that, and the equity I was building each month through my mortgage being paid off by the tenant, the returns were actually pretty good (18 per cent) despite paying peak pricing for the duplex.
Around the same time my $1.5 million in a half completed condominiums saw their values sliced by 20 per cent, my duplex value had plummeted to a mere 80 per cent of its former value as well.
The difference between the two was that I wasn’t forced to sell my duplex at a loss, it cash flowed through the entire five-year market slump.
My mortgage got paid down by nearly $50,000 and I had approximately $50,000 in cash flow paid to me during that time.
Today, that duplex is worth about 10 per cent more than what I paid for it and the cash flow is about 20 per cent better than what it once was thanks to rents climbing at about three per cent per year.
The $150,000 I dumped into the condos was an expensive lesson, but one I’m glad I learned as we go into this next boom cycle.
As exciting and alluring as some of these shiny new projects seem as an investment, sinking that same money into a boring, old duplex or multi-family building will always be my choice.
I know what I’m getting into. I know where I can add value, and I know that as long as it cash-flows, there’s no down turn in prices that will ever force me to take a loss.
As an investor, I like control; I don’t like putting my fate in the hands of bankers, politicians or even public opinion. I like to see my returns on paper in black and white and I like to be able to influence my upside.
My challenge is I also love the smell of opportunity and, if I’m honest ,I love the thrill of a good wager as well.
Knowing this about myself, I have to work hard at finding the discipline to stay the course with my investments and follow the plan I’ve laid out, as unsexy and tortoise like as it may be.
If you’re a boring old tortoise as well and want to see my hand-picked selection of painfully unglamorous cash flow properties with PDF analysis of each showing the predictable double-digit returns, click here and prepare to be underwhelmed.
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Most vacation-property owners will tell you that breaking even off their seasonal tenants is a pipe dream and unattainable.
The negative cash flow of beachfront condos is tolerated because historically they’ve offered great appreciation, personal enjoyment and that bit of prestige.
It feels better to say you have a beach spot than it does to say you have a duplex.
Beach condos tend to appreciate better than the average property because demand is high and the supply of projects that can be situated on the water is extremely finite.
Over the long term, people have done quite well buying this type of property if they can afford to subsidize it over the years.
Rarely do you get to have your cake and eat it too. Where do you find a nice piece of downtown beachfront that offers the ideal vacation property for your personal use four weeks per year, and have it cash flow spectacularly?
There are two developments in Kelowna that will tick both boxes. One is Discovery Bay on Sunset Drive and the other is also on Sunset, appropriately named Sunset Waterfront Resort.
They’re a stone’s throw from one another, and by the same developer. Discovery has 236 units and they sell for $392/sq ft. Sunset Resort is a concrete high rise with fewer units (128), so it commands $470/sq ft.
Both rent for about the same, but Discovery Bay is a slightly better cash-flow property.
I have a decade's worth of experience owning units in both complexes through good markets and bad, so I know the numbers and the secret to getting enjoyment and cash flow.
They cash flow so well because the demand for them in both on- and off-season is great and the values are still comparatively low compared to other tourism destinations.
These two developments have a special kind of zoning known as resort residential. This allows the owner to do nightly and weekly rentals and charge handsomely for it. You’ll pay $275/night or $1,800/week if you plan to stay on Sunset Drive during our beautiful summer months
The units in this complex switch back and forth each year from furnished long-term rentals to vacation rentals. Because of the location, demand is extremely strong. Keeping the units booked was not a problem, even during the great recession from 2008-2012
In the off-season, there is a frenzy of people waiting to rent them for 1,800/month. I opt for an eight-month lease From Sept. 15 to May 15. This allows me to get the place summer ready in time for the May long weekend, and I get to enjoy it for at least a week in May and then again in June. I chose these dates since, historically, I only got the last two weeks of June booked by vacationers.
July and August will be booked solid and will bring in over $15,000 in revenue. So this is prime rental time.
September, I typically block off a week for myself to enjoy the late summer weather, which is almost always perfection and the resort is more peaceful and relaxing as we enter the shoulder season. I’ll still accept one week’s booking for my usual $1,800.
As a nice little bonus, I park my boat in the protected lagoon and enjoy the most affordable moorage in the city. I can utilize the resorts many amenities whether I have the units rented or not. Spend the day by the pool and then walk to best restaurants in the city
Here is an average year’s revenue for a two-bed unit.
- Jan. – $1,800
- Feb. – $1,800
- Mar. – $1,800
- April – $1,800
- May – $1,500 (Half month rent plus 3 night rental)
- June – $3,600
- July – $7,950
- Aug. – $7,950
- Sept. – $2,700 (One week plus half month)
- Oct. – $1,800
- Nov. – $1,800
- Dec. – $1,800
- Total $36,300
Expenses for the year are pretty low as the heating and cooling and water is covered in the strata fee of $360/month, the taxes are quite low at around 2,300/year. Tenants pay for the cleaning, so you have about another $1,000 in incidentals for advertising and supplies.
Neither complex requires you to be part of a rental pool so you can manage them yourself on VRBO with relative ease and save the 20-30 per cent. For many however, the $8-10K investment in a manager is worth it to be totally hands off.
The net operating income of these investments is $28,680, which makes these a perfect 7 CAP while you can still buy them for around $400,000 multi-family residential and commercial properties are selling for approximately 5.5 CAP in Kelowna so this is extremely good.
And when was the last time you spent four weeks poolside at your duplex?
For a list of properties for sale on Sunset Drive and others that perform similarly to the above examples, email me and I will send it right over.