Open burning ban coming
Wood pellet exports double
Nearly $500K for car crash
Minister defends right to bail
Vise grips as steering wheel
$36M for vaccine injury 
New US rules for airlines 
Historic Trump hearing 
Pig kidney transplant 
Big loss for Boeing 
Metro sales edged higher
Retail sales slip 
Warriors snakebitten in loss
Iginla off to Europe
Rockets ink prospect
Perry teams with Lu Kala
Megan denies harassment
Swift ‘one of the family’
My favourite time of year. Our family re-unites with everyone home this year, I re-re-recommit to the gym, things slow down a bit at work and everyone gets to read everyone else’s housing predictions for 2015. As a rule I’ve learned that realtors are pretty optimistic when it comes to predicting the next 12 months. We always think things are going to improve and we’re usually right.
The Bank of Canada sent a chill down a lot of spines last week telling us they’ve developed a new model and think Canada’s housing market might be overvalued by as much as 30%. Actually, they said anywhere from 10% to 30% but the 30% figure was the number the media focused on. Did anyone else start doing the math in their heads or was I the only one? Could a $400,000 house really be worth $280,000? Even the 10% number is scary because it would put a lot of homeowners underwater with their mortgages and would certainly stifle housing activity.
Then, Elton Ash from Re/Max Western Canada saved the day by appearing on Global from his Kelowna office on Thursday quoting Re/Max numbers predicting a 7% increase in the Kelowna market next year. Ash talked about the things we already about Kelowna. He cited the fact that Kelowna is a destination market, recreational properties, the strength of the overall local economy and the weakening of the Canadian dollar should attract American buyers.
Who are we to believe? The Bank of Canada has access to more data than Re/Max but Re/Max, as a group, has sat down at more kitchen tables talking with home owners than the Bank of Canada. You can’t quantify optimism and people in my industry have always had a better feel for what’s to come in the near future. It’s been said that the public makes financial decisions based on their personal past 18 months’ experience and I think Realtors predictions are based on the homes or fears of the past 10 groups of buyers we’ve had in our cars or the last 10 homeowner kitchen tables we’ve sat at late at night. Love us or hate us, we have a pretty good idea what’s going on right now and a have a pretty good track record predicting what’s going to happen in the near future.
So, is the $400,000 house going to be worth $428,000 or $360,000 next year? I’m with Elton on this one. Sure, everyone is watching the price of oil, interest rates and unemployment figures but I’d bet on Re/Max over the Bank of Canada all day long.
Interested in what your home value is? What did your neighbor’s home sell for? See here www.gethomevalues.ca
Happy Holidays from our family to yours.
This article is written by or on behalf of an outsourced columnist and does not necessarily reflect the views of Castanet.
