Canada News

Environment Canada issues snowfall warning for eastern Nova Scotia

Heavy snow to fall in east

Photo: The Canadian Press

Vehicle buried after winter storm in Sydney, N.S. on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Shane Wilkie

Eastern Nova Scotia is under a snowfall warning Sunday.

Environment Canada warns that 10 to 20 centimetres of snow are on the way beginning Sunday afternoon and into Monday morning.

The weather service says a narrow band of heavy snow is set to develop over Cape Breton and Victoria County.

Officials say roads and walkways will likely be messy and travel could be difficult.

Temperatures should remain moderate, with highs around -2 C, and wind gusts of 20 to 40 kilometres an hour.

Environment Canada has the area under a yellow warning, meaning they believe the weather will cause moderate and short term delays or damage.

Food inflation expected to jump in January amid tax changes: economists

Expects food prices to jump

Photo: The Canadian Press

A customer shops in a new "small format" No Frills grocery store that the grocery chain is testing, in Toronto, Thursday, May 30, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Economists expect tax changes from a year ago will result in a year-over-year surge in food prices when Statistics Canada reports January inflation figures later this week.

StatCan will publish its January consumer price index report on Tuesday, a day later than originally scheduled.

The agency recently adopted a Monday publishing schedule for the consumer price index but shifted the January release to account for a regional holiday in eight provinces.

A Reuters poll of economists expects the annual rate of inflation held steady at 2.4 per cent in January, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

Some economists think the headline inflation figure will accelerate.

RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said in a note Friday that he thinks tax-related disruptions will push the annual inflation rate up to 2.6 per cent in January.

Starting mid-December 2024, the Liberal government waived the federal portion of the sales tax on dining out and a variety of common household goods and some grocery items for two months.

With January 2025 marking the only full calendar month benefiting from the tax change, January 2026 will see higher prices in comparison for restaurant meals and some grocery items, Janzen explained.

"Food price growth could spike above (seven per cent), driven by rising restaurant costs compared to tax-exempt levels a year ago," he said in the note.

Desjardins also expects distortions from the tax holiday will drive inflation a tick higher to 2.5 per cent in January.

Randall Bartlett, Desjardins' deputy chief economist, said that while January's food inflation will be largely tied to mechanical tax changes, that's not the whole story.

Rising costs for grocery staples such as coffee and beef are also driving movement in food inflation, he said.

Bartlett cited a report from the Bank of Canada earlier this month that pinned much of the blame for rising grocery prices on higher import costs, in part fuelled by a weaker Canadian dollar earlier this year.

He said the U.S. trade disruption is driving up costs across Canada's food supply chain, and that's being felt in grocery aisles.

"Ultimately, uncertainty and change that's driven by policy often ends up costing consumers more. And we're seeing that in the food inflation numbers," Bartlett said.

Ongoing relief from the end of the consumer carbon price last April, meanwhile, will continue to take some steam out of gasoline costs and the overall inflation figures, Janzen said in his note.

Economists at Capital Economics said in a note previewing Tuesday's inflation data that softness in shelter costs should also help keep a lid on January CPI.

New home price growth has been weak in recent months and the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts from the past year should feed into lower mortgage interest costs, Capital Economics noted.

The Bank of Canada will get one more look at inflation data for February after this week's release before making its next interest rate decision on March 18.

The central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at its first decision of the year in late January.

Governor Tiff Macklem said at the time that the central bank's governing council remains satisfied with where the policy rate stands as trade uncertainty continues to roil the economy.

Even if the headline inflation rate ticks higher as Desjardins expects, Bartlett said it likely wouldn't be cause for concern from the Bank of Canada. Recent shorter-term measures of the central bank's preferred core inflation metrics have shown signs of easing, he said, and he expects little change in those underlying price pressures in January.

"I think that's something that could be persistent going forward. So hopefully we'll see some continued good news on that front when we see the January numbers," Bartlett said.

Home insurers raise prices, rein in coverage as weather events worsen

Home insurers raise prices

Photo: The Canadian Press

Residents survey the damage before beginning cleanup in Calgary, Alta., Sunday, June 14, 2020, after a major hailstorm damaged homes and flooded streets on Saturday.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Canada’s home insurance safety net is starting to fray at the edges as the costs of extreme weather continue to rise.

While competition is still healthy, and the country has so far avoided the coverage deserts growing in the United States, insurers are paring back policies in a variety of ways to adapt.

Raising premiums above the rate of inflation — sometimes steeply above — has been a common response, but experts say insurers are also increasingly excluding coverage of some risks, raising deductibles, and reducing their exposure to higher risk areas.

As Morningstar DBRS said in a November report: “The Canadian market is showing early signs of coverage tightening."

While insurers haven't withdrawn from areas entirely, some have thinned their exposure.

“We've rebalanced in some of the higher severe weather regions,” said TD chief executive Raymond Chun during the bank’s most recent earnings call.

“Where we had a higher concentration in some of the high severe weather zones, we've moderated.”

The bank is aiming for growth in regions with lower catastrophic risk instead, said Chun.

Definity Financial Corp., which says it’s Canada’s fourth-largest property and casualty insurer after closing a $3.3-billion takeover of Travelers last month, has also taken steps to pull back in higher-risk areas.

Chief executive Rowan Saunders said on the company's November analyst call that they had worked to churn the portfolio, shifting new business to less catastrophe-exposed areas and reducing concentration in areas of higher peril scores.

He said the heavy lifting on shifting away from higher risk is largely done, but it will be a continuing effort.

“That's just ongoing good portfolio management.”

Pressure to rebalance portfolios rose after costs spiked in recent years from already elevated levels, most notably 2024’s record $9.4 billion in insured losses.

But it’s far from a one-off.

According to a report from TD, average personal property losses between 2020 and 2024 were nearly double the prior stretch, while the number of catastrophic weather events averaged 15 a year, up from around two per year in the 1980s.

“Growing insured personal property losses are placing considerable strain on Canada’s home insurance sector,” said economist Likeleli Seitlheko in the report.

In response to the costs, insurers are raising deductibles to upwards of $10,000 for perils like hail, reducing coverage, or simply not offering it for some risks such as flooding, he said.

“In worst case situations, insurance coverage is simply not available for certain perils,” said Seitlheko.

Flood coverage, which was only introduced in Canada about a decade ago, has been patchy, with limited availability in higher risk areas. According to Public Safety Canada, Quebec has the highest number of properties at risk of flooding, followed by Ontario and British Columbia.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimates that about 1.5 million households, or about 10 per cent, can’t get flood insurance, while for those who can, it can add as much as $15,000 a year to premiums.

But even that’s overestimating how many can get coverage, said David Nickerson, who studies property economics at Toronto Metropolitan University.

“The industry says that flood insurance is available to 90 per cent of Canadians. That’s a gross exaggeration. Maybe 50 per cent, effectively, because of the idiosyncratic nature and redlining of high-risk areas.”

Part of the problem is patchy and outdated data to know which areas are at risk, said Nickerson, which is why the federal government is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade flood maps.

While insurance companies have a variety of sources of information, they can also still get caught out with concentration risk, as TD did in the 2024 Calgary hailstorm, said Nickerson.

“They got pasted with that huge, huge loss, and so they withdrew to replenish their financial reserves.”

Alberta has been a focal point of losses, where events like the $3 billion hailstorm and $1.1 billion Jasper wildfire in 2024 led to industry operating costs exceeding premium revenues by nearly 20 per cent that year, according to the TD report.

Despite the challenges, the industry itself remains stable, said Nadja Dreff, sector lead of global insurance at Morningstar DBRS.

The huge losses in 2024 were like a stress test for the industry and showed they had done enough to prepare, though that preparation has largely meant raising prices, she said.

“When you're looking at it from a consumer, especially personal insurance perspective, the story is not so good, right?” said Dreff.

“Because for insurance companies to weather these losses, well, it means they are increasing premiums on personal lines, and that has been the case. And we predicted to be again the case in 2026.”

Between 2021 and 2025, home insurance costs (lumped together with mortgage insurance) rose 31 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, outpacing overall inflation at 15 per cent.

Areas hit by elevated claims saw much higher increases over the five years, including an average of a 68 per cent increase in B.C. and 58 per cent increase in Alberta, said the TD report.

But with insurers needing to ensure financial stability amid rising costs, there's no easy answers.

“Everybody is kind of doing the best they can, and consumers are sort of on the receiving end,” said Dreff.

“Really the only way out of this situation, is for society as a whole to invest in climate resilience.”

Building and repairing homes to be better ready for more extreme weather is what the Insurance Bureau of Canada is also pushing.

“We've got to put the brakes on worsening the problem and really take a serious approach to building a more resilient country,” said Liam McGuinty, IBC’s vice-president of federal affairs.

As Canada aims to ramp up housing construction, it’s important to not build homes in flood risk areas, while also building to prepare for risks like hail and wildfires, he said.

As it stands, trend lines point to increasing costs as climate change makes weather events more extreme, said McGuinty.

“We should be very concerned about that trend, and all those costs ultimately have to be borne somewhere, right? And ultimately it's policyholders, it's premium payers that bear that cost.”

Man killed after collision on Highway 407 near Markham

Man killed in fatal crash

Photo: The Canadian Press

An Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) patch is seen in Ottawa, on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby

The Ontario Provincial Police are investigating after a fatal crash on Highway 407 near Markham.

Police say officers were notified of a collision on Saturday afternoon involving a transport truck and a passenger vehicle.

Police say an initial investigation revealed that the passenger vehicle had broken down in a live lane on the highway and was later hit by a fuel tanker truck.

A 37-year-old man from Toronto was pronounced dead at the scene.

Police say no other injuries were reported.

Anyone who may have witnessed the collision or has dashcam footage is asked to contact the OPP.

Canada signs agreement for defence cooperation with Denmark

Canada signs agreement

Photo: The Canadian Press

Minister of National Defence David McGuinty rises during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Canada's defence minister has signed an agreement at an international security forum to strengthen co-operation with Denmark on defence matters.

A news release from the Department of National Defence says David McGuinty, along with defence ministers for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands have signed a memorandum of understanding for Canada-Denmark defence cooperation.

The release says the MOU covers areas including defence innovation, industrial cooperation, mutual logistics support, as well as personnel, training, exercises and education.

The signing took place at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, and comes a month after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his threats to annex Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark.

The release notes the MOU reflects "a shared commitment to transatlantic security and reinforces cooperation between NATO allies at a time of increasing complexity in the global security environment."

Canada opened a consulate in Greenland's capital Nuuk earlier this week, and while the consulate was planned before Trump's return to the White House, it has since become a show of solidarity with Denmark.

"Today, we send a clear message: the Arctic is secure, and we will keep it that way,” McGuinty said in the news release.

The release notes Canada shares a 3,000-kilometre maritime border with Denmark, as well as historic and cultural ties between its Inuit populations.

It says Denmark also joined Canada’s Maritime Security Partnership at the NATO summit in June.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 14, 2026.

U.S. senators express support for trade pact as Trump questions CUSMA's future

Senators support trade pact

Photo: The Canadian Press

Ranking member Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., left, speaks as committee chairman Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, listens during a hearing of the Senate Finance Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

United States lawmakers expressed support for the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade during a Thursday committee hearing after President Donald Trump floated the idea of ending the critical continental trade pact.

Republican Sen. Mike Crapo, from Idaho, told the Senate finance committee that the trade agreement, better known in Canada as CUSMA, has protected American jobs, strengthened manufacturing and helped to expand the economy.

"As the (CUSMA) review process proceeds, it is wise also to remember to not let the perfect become the enemy of the good," Crapo said.

The trade agreement is up for mandatory review this year but Trump has indicated he's in no rush to sign on for a 16-year extension. The president has said CUSMA may have served its purpose and has called the trade deal "irrelevant."

The president's trade team has also cast doubt on CUSMA's future. United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who will be a key figure in the upcoming negotiations, has said it may be better for the U.S. to seek separate agreements with Canada and Mexico.

Both Democrat and Republican lawmakers backed the trade pact during the Senate hearing. Crapo said there are areas of CUSMA that need improvement but "this trilateral relationship should not be taken for granted."

CUSMA was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

It was a key early test of Ottawa's efforts to work with the Trump administration during his first term. While Trump threatened repeatedly to withdraw from the pact, ultimately an agreement was reached that was praised by all three countries.

The trade pact also received overwhelming — 89 to 10 — bipartisan U.S. Senate support.

CUSMA's review essentially sets up a three-way choice for the partner countries to make in July. They can renew the deal for another 16 years, withdraw from it or signal both non-renewal and non-withdrawal — which would trigger an annual review that could keep negotiations going for up to a decade.

Canadian officials are preparing for longer negotiations.

Trump's repeated list of complaints about Canada could indicate where talks might get contentious. A major target of his ire is Canada's dairy supply management system, which was brought up several times by senators during Thursday’s hearing.

Democrat Sen. Ron Wyden told the hearing that "Canada has never come into compliance with its market access commitments under the law, keeping our exports out of the Canadian market."

The lawmakers also mentioned other trade irritants. Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines said he was grateful for the United States' "partners to the north and partners to the south."

He said Canada is his state's most important trading partner but Trump is correct in wanting to improve CUSMA.

"The joint review is an opportunity to address issues like discrimination against Montana electricity exports to Alberta, improper digital trade regulations and strengthening rules of origin so (CUSMA) benefits only flow to member countries," Daines told the hearing.

The trade pact has shielded Canada and Mexico from the worst impacts of Trump's tariffs. The president increased duties on Canada to 35 per cent last August but those tariffs do not apply to goods compliant with CUSMA.

The president's separate Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber and cabinets are slamming Canadian industries.

Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto told the hearing that when CUSMA was adopted, it included a letter signed by Trump that said the United States would exclude most vehicles and auto parts from future Section 232 tariffs.

Other lawmakers talked about how Trump is undermining the agreement, citing his erratic threats to tariff and deregulate Canadian-made aircraft and his recent social media post saying he would delay the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge that will connect Ontario to Michigan.

Kevin Brady, a former Republican lawmaker and senior consultant for the United States House of Representatives, told the hearing that he believes Trump does still value the agreement.

"His style has always been aggressive and tough in these agreements," Brady said. "But it shouldn't interfere with these three countries strengthening this, preserving it and extending it."

Tens of thousands march in Toronto rally in support of Iran protests

Marching to support protests

Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sammy Kogan

Protesters march in support of regime change in Iran during a demonstration in Toronto, on Saturday, Feb. 14, 2026.

Tens of thousands of people marched down Yonge Street to the beat of drums and chants of “King Reza Pahlavi” at a rally in North York, as similar protests took place in major cities around the world.

Protesters held aloft and draped themselves in red, white and green flags emblazoned with a golden lion — the flag Iran used before the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979, toppling the previous monarchy.

Demonstrators called for an end to government repression in Iran as widespread protests inside the country have been met with violent crackdowns.

“It's hard to see that our friends and families in Iran are being kept in prison for no reason, being shot in the head for (using) their democratic voice,” said Nima Najafi.

Najafi said he attended a protest two weeks ago in solidarity with anti-government protesters in Iran that took place at Toronto’s Sankofa Square. He said Saturday's protest is twice as large.

Toronto police said 150,000 people attended the Sankofa Square rally and that they were expecting 200,000 to march down Yonge Street on Saturday.

Najafi and others called for the return of Iran’s exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, saying he is only leader capable of helping Iran eventually transition to a democracy.

Thousands of protesters held pictures of Pahlavi at the march, alongside photos of people killed in Iran.

Arshia Aghdasi, a protester who said he flew to Toronto from Florida to join the rally, called on foreign powers to intervene in Iran, specifically the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested the U.S. could attack Iran over the killing of peaceful demonstrators in the country. Some protesters Saturday held signs with Trump's face on them, calling on the U.S. President to end nuclear negotiations with Iran and take military action.

Najafi said he was initially against calls for foreign powers to intervene in Iran but now he believes it is the only path forward.

“I had a friend who got shot in the head. He died. He was a pharmacist … a high school friend," he said. “I had another friend who is imprisoned because he was a doctor treating patients.”

Iran has been gripped by countrywide protests since late December, sparked by an ongoing economic crisis that has sent the country's currency into freefall.

While protesters were initially focused on Iran's economy, demonstrators pivoted to calling for an end to Iran’s Islamic Republic, with some supporting the return of the ousted monarchy to power.

Iran’s government, which has cracked down on protests and implemented an internet blackout, said more than 3,000 people have been killed since protests broke out.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in counting deaths during previous rounds of unrest in Iran, put the death toll at over 7,000.

Arash Karimi said he was protesting on Yonge Street in solidarity with unarmed civilians who have been killed in Iran, calling government crackdowns a “one-sided war against the people.”

“Every Iranian knows someone, relatives or friends, (who have been) killed,” he said.

Amirali Ahzan, a protester who wore an Iranian lion and sun flag as well as a rainbow pride flag on his back, said he hopes the current unrest in Iran leads to political change that will guarantee more rights for the Iranian people.

Ahzan said he fled Iran three years ago because he feared for his safety as a member of the LGBTQ community. Homosexuality is criminalized in Iran.

Before he fled, Ahzan said he was briefly jailed in Iran for attending a party where alcohol was present. Consuming alcohol is also banned in Iran.

Ahzan said it's unclear how many LGBTQ Iranians have been killed or imprisoned since protests broke out. He said he was marching Saturday in their honour.

"I think it's my duty to be their voice," he said. "There are so many people like me who have been marginalized and criminalized. I do want to stand up for them."

Ahzan said he wants Pahlavi to lead a "free Iran" and called on the exiled crown prince to improve women's rights, trans rights and human rights in the country.

Saturday’s rally is one of many happening worldwide as part of what Pahlavi has labelled a Global Day of Action.

Pahlavi said Toronto, Munich and Los Angeles would be the main gathering points for Iranians living abroad to protest and call for regime change in Iran.

A protest in Munich was attended by more than 200,000 people, according to German news agency dpa.

Police warned the public to steer clear of the area around Saturday's protest, which they said would cause extreme traffic and transit delays. Police closed roads, including portions of Yonge Street and North York Boulevard, ahead of the rally.

Canada and Germany sign declaration of intent to grow AI field together

Canada, Germany talk AI

Photo: The Canadian Press

Evan Solomon, Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation appears at committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Canada and Germany have signed a joint declaration of intent to work together on growing the field of artificial intelligence.

The signing also coincides with the launch of a Sovereign Technology Alliance between the two countries.

A statement says the declaration of intent allows the two countries to focus on expanding AI research and addressing critical skills gaps in the field.

The alliance will focus on delivering real capability and economic benefits for both countries.

Minister of Artificial Intelligence Evan Solomon says AI is becoming foundational to economic strength and national security, and at a moment of rapid technological change, Canada and Germany are choosing to build.

Germany's Minister for Digital Transformation and Government Modernization Karsten Wildberger says the two countries believe that responsible AI development is critical to long-term economic strength.

Accused in armed forest assault seeking bail

Assault suspect seeking bail

Photo: Photo provided by RCMP.

Justin Charles.

A Prince Albert man accused in an incident that left two people lost and injured in a forest north of the city last month remains in custody and is seeking bail. 

Justin Redman Charles, 30, had an appearance in Prince Albert Provincial Court on Feb. 9, where he was remanded. A bail hearing is set for Feb. 18.

Charles was arrested on Jan. 22 after Prince Albert Police Service located him at a home in the city. He had been wanted by Prince Albert RCMP in connection with an incident in the RM of Buckland on Jan. 7.

Police were called around 3 a.m. for a report of a man being chased by someone with a weapon. RCMP say an altercation occurred between two men and a woman in a vehicle, and Charles assaulted the others. Police say he took them into a forested area, pointed a firearm at them and pulled the trigger. The victims weren’t injured but fled deeper into the woods and became lost.

Officers used a drone to search the area and found the male victim. They used the drone’s spotlight and provided verbal instructions over the phone to guide him out. He was taken to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

Police Dog Service and ground search teams, supported by the drone’s aerial view, later found the female victim inside an SUV in a remote area. Officers used snowmobiles to reach her and get her to an ambulance that was waiting at the scene. She was also taken to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

Charles faces multiple assault and weapons-related charges and remains in custody pending his bail hearing.

Fact File: Why it's tough to verify some of Carney's claims about 'protected' jobs

Hard to verify PM's claims

Photo: The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to the press during an announcement while visiting an auto-parts plant in Woodbridge, Ont., February 5, 2026.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has made a series of claims recently about how much the federal government's support for tariff-stricken industries has protected jobs in Canada.

Some of his figures on the number of workers being supported come close to federal records. Experts say that while there are models that can help estimate job creation tied to federal programs, measuring their impact on the labour market is seldom an exact science.

THE CLAIM

Since March 2025, the federal government has announced multiple measures to protect Canadian industries and workers vulnerable to U.S. tariffs. These measures have included changes to make it easier to access employment insurance, large pools of funds to help companies hold on to their workers and policies that encourage domestic firms to buy Canadian.

Speaking at an auto parts manufacturer in Woodbridge, Ont. on Feb. 5, Carney touted the results of what he called "the most comprehensive set of trade resilience measures in Canada's history."

"Our measures have created and protected 18,000 jobs across steel, aluminum, lumber and the auto sector. They've prevented more than 20,000 layoffs," he said.

"We provided income supports for more than 6,000 workers, with a total of 190,000 more expected to benefit, including in the auto sector."

THE FACTS

On the day Carney made that claim, The Canadian Press reached out to the Prime Minister's Office to ask for the source of his figures.

The next day, Feb. 6, the PMO forwarded the request on to Employment and Social Development Canada.

After two deadline extensions, ESDC provided a short answer around 5 p.m. ET on Feb. 10, the following Tuesday.

That reply stated that the estimate of layoffs avoided — 20,000 — came from the federal government's work-sharing program data, while the figure on workers receiving income support was taken from the employment insurance program.

The federal government's work-sharing program offers income support for workers with reduced hours when their employer is facing a downturn in business outside the company's control.

An ESDC web page tracking the program estimates that 18,621 layoffs had been prevented since March 2025 as of the week ending Feb. 7, 2026 — slightly below Carney's figure. The program has approved 1,450 total agreements with employers representing 48,979 employees at a total cost of $307,818,851, according to the federal government's statistics.

Another ESDC web page states that 8,360 people have become first-time recipients of employment insurance since April 1, 2025, though those figures are not divided by industry.

ESDC's Feb. 6 response did not include Carney's 18,000 jobs "created and protected" figure. The Canadian Press requested additional information related to those numbers the following day.

The department requested multiple extensions through the week and did not provide a response by the final deadline of noon on Feb. 13.

Tony Stillo is the director of Canadian economics at Oxford Economics and previously worked at the Ontario Ministry of Finance, where he modelled the labour market impacts of various government policies.

He said there are a number of ways to chart potential job impacts and some are more clear than others.

With direct financial supports such as the work-sharing program, Stillo said, applicants have to provide the federal government with regular and detailed payroll data that helps to inform statistics about the number of jobs affected, or the number that otherwise would have been lost.

"The jobs at risk is a bit of a subjective figure, but that's kind of a reference point," he said.

Stillo said economic models are fairly reliable when it comes to the number of jobs created, lost or maintained across a supply chain. A tiremaker might be able to hold on to more workers if the automotive company they supply is also doing more business, for example.

He said the models get less reliable when they examine "induced" job impacts — knock-on effects from a loss of income across the economy. If an autoworker isn't stopping into his local dinner on the way into his shift, the person serving his coffee might see their job put at risk. Stillo said those second-order effects are harder to predict.

Stillo said governments typically don't report induced job figures and default to more verifiable figures.

"That's where I would draw the line, that induced effect. I would stick to the direct activity at the plant, employment in this case, and then the supply chain, not the re-spending of the incomes that have been supported," he said.

Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, said it's "standard fare" for governments to estimate the labour market effects of their policies. He also said it's hard to know whether Carney's 18,000-job figure is accurate without also knowing "what's under the hood" of Ottawa's models.

Outside of direct income supports, Bartlett said, the federal government will have to derive job estimates from comparisons to historic data.

Policies like Budget 2025's proposed "productivity super deduction" — a measure allowing businesses to write off the full cost of investments like new equipment in year one — might be judged against how much similar policies drove business investment and job creation in previous years.

"Those are much harder to track and they're really based on different estimation approaches and they’ll give different results," Bartlett said.

Statistics Canada said in its January labour force survey that employment in tariff-sensitive manufacturing was down 51,000 positions from a year earlier.

Stillo said in a recent report that tracking the impact of the trade war on the jobs market has been challenging, in part because the monthly labour force survey has diverged at times this year from StatCan's survey of employment, payrolls and hours — a separate measure of employment that's usually less volatile but also less timely than the labour force survey.

Stillo said when tracking individual data sets is difficult, it's more important to take a step back.

"We think the big picture is the economy is struggling to grow and will continue to do so because of the trade war, the uncertainty related to that," he said.

Stillo added, however, that modestly stimulative interest rates from the Bank of Canada and fiscal policy supports from multiple levels of government are offering "tailwinds" to the economy.

While exact figures are hard to nail down, Bartlett said the labour market has proven surprisingly resilient to the trade war so far and the impact of the federal government's policies has thus far been "positive."

“We can quibble over individual numbers. Reasonable people can disagree on what those numbers are and what does constitute reasonable. I think they have helped to prevent certainly some layoffs, maybe added a little bit more to hiring than we would’ve seen otherwise," he said.

Bartlett said Ottawa's task now is to decide whether these programs are continuing to work as designed or need to evolve, and whether taxpayers are getting "bang for their buck."

Warmer temperatures ahead for southern Ontario as longest cold spell in a decade ends

Ontario will finally warm up

Photo: The Canadian Press

A pedestrian navigates a snowed-in staircase amid heavy snowfall and accumulation as snow and heavy winds continue to hammer the Greater Toronto Area, in Toronto, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026.

A cold spell that has gripped southern Ontario since mid-January is finally set to break in time for the Family Day long weekend.

Environment Canada is forecasting temperatures of 2 C this weekend in Toronto, warming up to 6 C on Monday.

Environment Canada meteorologist Eric Tomlinson said southwestern winds are bringing in warm air to the region, giving relief to southern Ontarians who experienced the longest cold snap the area has seen in over a decade.

Tomlinson said Toronto saw 23 straight days of freezing temperatures – not enough to break records, but certainly the longest since the winter of 2015, when Toronto was on ice for 32 days.

The meteorologist said the worst of winter is likely behind southern Ontario, as the last week of January and the first week of February are typically the coldest days of the year.

Tomlinson said the long-term forecast indicates seasonal temperatures moving forward for the region, though there still may be some subzero days on the horizon.

Environment Canada had most of southern Ontario under cold warnings for much of January and February.

On some of the coldest days, the agency warned Ontarians of frostbite risk and wind chills of up to -35 C.

'Slowly work together': How students in La Loche returned after mass shooting

'Slowly work together'

A security guard stands on watch at the La Loche Community School, in La Loche, Sask., on Monday Jan. 9, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

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Photo: The Canadian PressPhoto: The Canadian Press

 

A northern Saskatchewan high school that was the site of a deadly shooting a decade ago closed for weeks before students returned to class.

Jason Young with the Northern Lights School Division says time was needed after the tragedy at Dene High School in La Loche to ensure supports and security were in place. Two died and several were injured.

"We were just in a difficult position to be able to start school again," Young said in an interview.

"We didn't have the resources to do that. We just needed to meet with people where they were at and slowly work together to try and start school up again."

On Tuesday, a mass shooting at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School and at a home in the town in northeastern B.C. left nine children and adults dead, including the shooter.

RCMP Deputy Commissioner Dwayne McDonald told a news conference Friday that children need to return to school at an appropriate time.

He said he's hopeful investigators will be out of the school as soon as possible so the town can begin to heal.

The Grade 7-12 school has roughly 160 students.

B.C. Premier David Eby told a vigil in Tumbler Ridge on Friday night that students won't have to go back if they don't want to.

"I will promise you that not one of you will ever be forced to go back to that school. We will provide a safe place for you to go to school."

Christy Fennell, superintendent of the Peace River South School District, said in a statement posted on the school's website that it would share back-to-school plans over the next week.

"We know some families will want the stability of school routines, while others may not feel ready," she said.

"The expectation is that we will not be returning to the current high school site."

RCMP said 18-year-old Jesse Van Rootselaar first killed her mother, 39-year-old Jennifer Jacobs, and 11-year-old brother, Emmett Jacobs, at the family's home in Tumbler Ridge.

She then headed to the high school with two guns, killing five students — Kylie Smith, Zoey Benoit, Ticaria Lampert and Abel Mwansa Jr., all 12, and Ezekiel Schofield, 13. Shannda Aviugana-Durand, 39, an education assistant at the school, was also killed.

When police arrived, Van Rootselaar shot herself.

Young said there were similarities in La Loche.

On Jan. 22, 2016, a 17-year-old student killed two of his cousins at a home in the remote Dene community — Dayne Fontaine, 17, and Drayden Fontaine, 13. He then went to the school and gunned down teacher Adam Wood and a teacher's aide, Marie Janvier, and wounded seven others.

In both cases, frightened students huddled in classrooms, consoled each other and waited.

In La Loche, Mounties announced over the school’s intercom that they had arrested the shooter.

Randan Fontaine later pleaded guilty to various counts of first-degree murder, second-degree murder and attempted murder. He was sentenced as an adult to life in prison with no chance of parole for 10 years.

In the weeks that followed the shooting, the La Loche school hired security guards to ease fears over safety, Young said. RCMP also provided a resource officer to work in the building.

"We knew that one of the steps we needed to take was how do we reduce anxiety," he said. "When you're able to offer that type of support, staff and students can focus on what they need to do."

The school also worked with the provincial and federal governments to provide additional mental health supports, including more counsellors.

Young said staff heard from students that they wanted to return.

"You get back to as normal education as you possibly can," he said.

"(Teachers were) just doing the best they can, given the situation we were all dealing with."

Security guards still remain in place at the school, he said, though the RCMP resource officer isn't working out of the school as much.

"Part of the challenge with that is recruitment challenges," Young said. "We're doing the best we can with what we've got."

Each year on the anniversary of the shooting, the school has closed — except this year. A ceremony was held at the school to mark the 10th anniversary.

Young said students and staff will never forget what happened.

"(The anniversary) will just be a day where they can actually focus on service to others. That's going to be the theme going forward," he said.

"Obviously, it's not something you can ever forget."

Young said his school division has reached out to the Peace River South School District.

"All I can do is just continue to pray and think about those that are affected in that community," he said.

"I know that they too will be resilient through this, as difficult as it is right now."