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Ups and Downs in the World of Housing

Ask your realtor about oil prices

Would everyone who predicted interest rates would rise please stand up and identify yourselves and say sorry to everyone you meet today.  We shouldn’t fret though, we’ll be right one of these days….just not today.  The Bank of Canada’s drop in their trend setting rate to 0.75 was a surprise to many but it just goes to show how unpredictable things are out there.   

After listening to buyers and sellers about where the Kelowna market is going the talk always involves a discussion about the price of oil these days.  I don’t need to explain why with so many people here linked to Alberta’s economy but my unscientific observation is whether you’re an optimist or pessimist largely depends on how old you are.  The older people I speak with just shrug it off quickly and talk about the cyclical nature of oil prices while younger people who have never been through a downturn are nervous.  We will most certainly see a drop off of buyers buying second houses here from people who are dependent on a strong Alberta economy but will see an increase from the over 50 crowd who’ve played their financial cards right and just don’t need to endure another downturn.   And there’s lots of those people in the 50-65 year cohort who may not want to return to Northern Ontario or Manitoba.  Like so many others before them, many will choose the Okanagan to settle down and retire.  (I hope).

It is too early in the  year to dissect sales (76 residential/52 strata) so let’s look at inventory.  1,118 residential homes for sale.  Analyzing this further, there are….

  • 70 priced under $300,000
  • 320 $300,000 to $500,000
  • 390 $500,000 to $800,000
  • 340 over $800,000

Going deeper, 154 homes are vacant, 46 on leased land, 287 have suites and 78 are lakefront.  For those who always ask, there are only 33 foreclosures for sale right now. 

To summarize, the housing market continues to be balanced with a stable and predictable supply of homes for just about every price point.  Contact me for my open house schedule and drop in and say hi if you’re out and about this weekend.

 

To view Kelowna homes for sale go to http://www.OkanaganBC.com or call Andrew Smith directly at 250-979-8066.

Follow me on Google Plus https://plus.google.com/+OkanaganbcKelownaRealEstate/posts

Over 22 years experience helping people achieve their dream of home ownership!



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Kelowna average house price

Everyone in Kelowna has welcomed the New Year with a body blow of a snow storm. Even the Saskatchewan and Northern Ontario ex-pats living here weren’t poo-pooing our snowstorm as we all shoveled, shoveled and shoveled our way out. Kids missed school, neighbours helped neighbours and strangers helped strangers get through it and then we all watched Canada win a gold medal hockey game. Nice way to start the year.

Housing summary. If you’ve been reading, the year end numbers won’t be a surprise. We jumped from 2,400 residential sales in 2013 to 2,800 last year. The Kelowna average sale price jumped from $491,000 to $542,000 in a year. Apartment sales jumped to 1,028 solds last year from 773 in 2013 while prices jumped from $233,000 to $243,000. Not a huge jump but many were predicting a downward correction because of an oversupply of inventory so the results are eye opening.

The statistic that stands out now that the dust has settled is the 150 homes that sold last year over $1 million. I normally don’t write about that segment of the market but it’s up from 100 sold in 2013. A 50% increase! If nothing else, this skews the overall averages up and I don’t imagine that kind of momentum can sustain itself. Look for that number (150) to decrease this year as our next door neighbours to the east might be a little more hesitant investing in Kelowna’s high end housing market.

As for the rest of us, things are looking pretty good. We live in a sought after blue chip community that more and more people are learning about and we’re quite proud of. We have an ongoing demand for housing with a reasonable supply of available homes in an area where people want to relocate. If you’re looking for something to worry about, spend less time fretting over the price of oil and more time worrying about interest rate increases. People have been predicting doom and gloom for the Kelowna housing market since Western Star Trucks left town in 2002 when you could buy a reasonably nice home for $160,000.

To find out your House Value go to www.GetHouseValues.ca

 

For a FREE List of All Homes for sale click here make clickable link (http://www.okanaganbc.com/listings-search/) or call Andrew Smith directly at 250-979-8066. Over 22 years experience helping people achieve their dream of home ownership!

Twitter @smithap01

All the best in 2015 and thanks for reading.

Andy Smith



Selling your home over Christmas

There are 1,180 residential homes on the market in Kelowna today and there were 84 sales over the first two weeks of December.  Average sale price was a reasonably impressive $460,000 considering the absence of the out of town buyer this time of year.  Thirty-three apartment condominiums have sold at the halfway point in December.  I know two weeks doesn’t really mean all that much when looking at overall pictures of a housing market but sellers are realizing that houses can be sold during the winter months in Kelowna.   With under 400 homes for sale priced under $500,000 there isn’t a whole lot of competition this time of year and if priced right there are buyers out looking.  Eighty-four of them over the past two weeks!   Regardless of the season, school calendar, weather or highway conditions, if someone needs to buy a house it becomes their only priority and a lot of transactions happen with Christmas music playing in the background. To view homes available click here.

The early  numbers are telling us that it could be the busiest December in ten years. We are running low on affordably priced homes but this always changes as we approach spring.  If you’re reading this and are considering selling your home next year you really should pause for a moment and consider pushing that date forward.  Yes, it’s more inconvenient dealing with strangers looking at your home during holidays but uncompromising laws of supply and demand are telling us that supply is low right now.  Consider yourself nudged.

I hope you’re enjoying this special time of year spending it with family or friends (or better, somewhere tropical). 

 

Best wishes in the New Year!

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Kelowna's 2015 housing market

My favourite time of year.  Our family re-unites with everyone home this year, I re-re-recommit to the gym, things slow down a bit at work and everyone gets to read everyone else’s housing predictions for 2015.  As a rule I’ve learned that realtors are pretty optimistic when it comes to predicting the next 12 months.  We always think things are going to improve and we’re usually right.

The Bank of Canada sent a chill down a lot of spines last week telling us they’ve developed a new model and think Canada’s housing market might be overvalued by as much as 30%.  Actually, they said anywhere from 10% to 30% but the 30% figure was the number the media focused on.  Did anyone else start doing the math in their heads or was I the only one?  Could a $400,000 house really be worth $280,000?  Even the 10% number is scary because it would put a lot of homeowners underwater with their mortgages and would certainly stifle housing activity. 

Then, Elton Ash from Re/Max Western Canada saved the day by appearing on Global from his Kelowna office on Thursday quoting Re/Max numbers predicting a 7% increase in the Kelowna market next year.  Ash talked about the things we already about Kelowna.  He cited the fact that Kelowna is a destination market, recreational properties, the strength of the overall local economy and the weakening of the Canadian dollar should attract American buyers. 

Who are we to believe?  The Bank of Canada has access to more data than Re/Max but Re/Max, as a group, has sat down at more kitchen tables talking with home owners than the Bank of Canada.  You can’t quantify optimism and people in my industry have always had a better feel for what’s to come in the near future.  It’s been said that the public makes financial decisions based on their personal past 18 months’ experience and I think Realtors predictions are based on the homes or fears of the past 10 groups of buyers we’ve had in our cars or the last 10 homeowner kitchen tables we’ve sat at late at night.  Love us or hate us, we have a pretty good idea what’s going on right now and a have a pretty good track record predicting what’s going to happen in the near future. 

So, is the $400,000 house going to be worth $428,000 or $360,000 next year?  I’m with Elton on this one.  Sure, everyone is watching the price of oil, interest rates and unemployment figures but I’d bet on  Re/Max over the  Bank of Canada all day long.

 

Interested in what your home value is? What did your neighbor’s home sell for? See here www.gethomevalues.ca

 

Happy Holidays from our family to yours.



Read more Ups and Downs in the World of Housing articles

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About the Author

Andrew Smith has been helping people buy and sell Real Estate with Royal LePage since 1993. He moved to Kelowna from Vancouver with his wife Jo Ann and two children. He chose Kelowna for the lifestyle and to raise his family.

Andrew was was also Best Selling Author on Amazon for House Virgins- How To Buy A House The Right Way The First Time.

 

"I help growing families smoothly transition to a larger home by making the finding, buying, and selling process easy."

 

You can contact Andrew by email:  [email protected]

Visit his website here:  http://www.okanaganbc.com/

Follow Andrew on Twitter:  @smithap01

 




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The views expressed are strictly those of the author and not necessarily those of Castanet. Castanet presents its columns "as is" and does not warrant the contents.


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