After a full month of Kelowna real estate data safely tucked away in the books it’s time we start to look for any emerging trends. So far, I don’t see any change from last year but it’s still a winter market and we’re dealing mostly with locals buying from locals. It feels like change is coming though…..but doesn’t it always?
Sales January 2014 116
Sales January 2015 101
Meaningless. Fifteen less homes sold in any given month is a rounding error possibly explained by a snowstorm or two, one less business day in the month or even a few realtors handing paperwork in late.
Average residential sale price
January 2014 $474,000
January 2015 $527,000
Once again, meaningless. Prices rose throughout 2014 and this is probably a continuation of last year’s trend. 100 sales isn’t enough of a sample size to get excited or discouraged about house values. Let’s wait until March before celebrating or biting our nails.
Similar story with an even smaller sample size. Prices were $226,000 last month which is up from $210,000 January 2014. There were four more apartments selling last month (38) compared to January 2014 (34).
When we open up our newspapers there’s good news and bad. Let’s start with the good. The RBC posted rate for a three year closed mortgage is 3.84% and just about any mortgage broker can better that number. Ask any old person if this is good for the housing market. At my first office meeting on my first day in real estate there was genuine excitement in the air because the posted rate for a 5 year closed mortgage was 7.25%.
Let’s end with the bad. It’s become pretty clear that there’s a correlation between commodity prices and Alberta’s various real estate markets. Also pretty clear that Alberta buyers play a significant role in Kelowna’s housing market so recent numbers released from the Calgary real estate board have to give a lot of us pause after reading that listings were up 40% and unit sales down 35% in January. Prices are steady though. These aren’t meaningless statistics cavalierly explained away by a couple of school snow days like I did. Certain Kelowna neighbourhoods that Albertans find attractive just might be in for a bit of a rough patch. Chris Audette, a Royal LePage Realtor in Calgary (www.Calgary-real-estate.com) summed up Calgary’s current market.
“The market here has definitely turned to a buyers choice overall, while some pockets (like townhomes) remain relatively un-phased by the change. Buyers looking to upgrade are well advised to take advantage of the new market and capitalize on the overall home selling and buying strategy to make sense, while folks looking to sell and buy cheaper may be better off to wait and flippers may really want to examine their risk tolerance.”
Summing up, if you’re a first time Kelowna buyer reading this and are on the fence about finally jumping into the housing market stop taking advice from anyone telling you not to and lock into a lifetime low long term rate and take the plunge. You’ll be telling your grandchildren about the rate you negotiated and they probably won’t believe you. If you’re a Kelowna seller in a high end, high priced home you might want to consider getting ahead of what might be coming and think about a price that’s attractive to the marketplace today, like right now, instead of waiting until the Spring market.
To view Kelowna homes for sale go to http://www.okanaganbc.com/listings-search/ or call Andrew Smith directly at 250-979-8066. Over 22 years experience helping people achieve their dream of home ownership!
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Would everyone who predicted interest rates would rise please stand up and identify yourselves and say sorry to everyone you meet today. We shouldn’t fret though, we’ll be right one of these days….just not today. The Bank of Canada’s drop in their trend setting rate to 0.75 was a surprise to many but it just goes to show how unpredictable things are out there.
After listening to buyers and sellers about where the Kelowna market is going the talk always involves a discussion about the price of oil these days. I don’t need to explain why with so many people here linked to Alberta’s economy but my unscientific observation is whether you’re an optimist or pessimist largely depends on how old you are. The older people I speak with just shrug it off quickly and talk about the cyclical nature of oil prices while younger people who have never been through a downturn are nervous. We will most certainly see a drop off of buyers buying second houses here from people who are dependent on a strong Alberta economy but will see an increase from the over 50 crowd who’ve played their financial cards right and just don’t need to endure another downturn. And there’s lots of those people in the 50-65 year cohort who may not want to return to Northern Ontario or Manitoba. Like so many others before them, many will choose the Okanagan to settle down and retire. (I hope).
It is too early in the year to dissect sales (76 residential/52 strata) so let’s look at inventory. 1,118 residential homes for sale. Analyzing this further, there are….
- 70 priced under $300,000
- 320 $300,000 to $500,000
- 390 $500,000 to $800,000
- 340 over $800,000
Going deeper, 154 homes are vacant, 46 on leased land, 287 have suites and 78 are lakefront. For those who always ask, there are only 33 foreclosures for sale right now.
To summarize, the housing market continues to be balanced with a stable and predictable supply of homes for just about every price point. Contact me for my open house schedule and drop in and say hi if you’re out and about this weekend.
To view Kelowna homes for sale go to http://www.OkanaganBC.com or call Andrew Smith directly at 250-979-8066.
Follow me on Google Plus https://plus.google.com/+OkanaganbcKelownaRealEstate/posts
Over 22 years experience helping people achieve their dream of home ownership!
Everyone in Kelowna has welcomed the New Year with a body blow of a snow storm. Even the Saskatchewan and Northern Ontario ex-pats living here weren’t poo-pooing our snowstorm as we all shoveled, shoveled and shoveled our way out. Kids missed school, neighbours helped neighbours and strangers helped strangers get through it and then we all watched Canada win a gold medal hockey game. Nice way to start the year.
Housing summary. If you’ve been reading, the year end numbers won’t be a surprise. We jumped from 2,400 residential sales in 2013 to 2,800 last year. The Kelowna average sale price jumped from $491,000 to $542,000 in a year. Apartment sales jumped to 1,028 solds last year from 773 in 2013 while prices jumped from $233,000 to $243,000. Not a huge jump but many were predicting a downward correction because of an oversupply of inventory so the results are eye opening.
The statistic that stands out now that the dust has settled is the 150 homes that sold last year over $1 million. I normally don’t write about that segment of the market but it’s up from 100 sold in 2013. A 50% increase! If nothing else, this skews the overall averages up and I don’t imagine that kind of momentum can sustain itself. Look for that number (150) to decrease this year as our next door neighbours to the east might be a little more hesitant investing in Kelowna’s high end housing market.
As for the rest of us, things are looking pretty good. We live in a sought after blue chip community that more and more people are learning about and we’re quite proud of. We have an ongoing demand for housing with a reasonable supply of available homes in an area where people want to relocate. If you’re looking for something to worry about, spend less time fretting over the price of oil and more time worrying about interest rate increases. People have been predicting doom and gloom for the Kelowna housing market since Western Star Trucks left town in 2002 when you could buy a reasonably nice home for $160,000.
To find out your House Value go to www.GetHouseValues.ca
For a FREE List of All Homes for sale click here make clickable link (http://www.okanaganbc.com/listings-search/) or call Andrew Smith directly at 250-979-8066. Over 22 years experience helping people achieve their dream of home ownership!
All the best in 2015 and thanks for reading.
There are 1,180 residential homes on the market in Kelowna today and there were 84 sales over the first two weeks of December. Average sale price was a reasonably impressive $460,000 considering the absence of the out of town buyer this time of year. Thirty-three apartment condominiums have sold at the halfway point in December. I know two weeks doesn’t really mean all that much when looking at overall pictures of a housing market but sellers are realizing that houses can be sold during the winter months in Kelowna. With under 400 homes for sale priced under $500,000 there isn’t a whole lot of competition this time of year and if priced right there are buyers out looking. Eighty-four of them over the past two weeks! Regardless of the season, school calendar, weather or highway conditions, if someone needs to buy a house it becomes their only priority and a lot of transactions happen with Christmas music playing in the background. To view homes available click here.
The early numbers are telling us that it could be the busiest December in ten years. We are running low on affordably priced homes but this always changes as we approach spring. If you’re reading this and are considering selling your home next year you really should pause for a moment and consider pushing that date forward. Yes, it’s more inconvenient dealing with strangers looking at your home during holidays but uncompromising laws of supply and demand are telling us that supply is low right now. Consider yourself nudged.
I hope you’re enjoying this special time of year spending it with family or friends (or better, somewhere tropical).
Best wishes in the New Year!
Read more Ups and Downs in the World of Housing articles
- Kelowna's 2015 housing market Dec 15
- Internet-landia Dec 1
- Kelowna Women's Shelter Christmas Nov 24
- Kelowna condos: Is it time? Nov 3
- Home inspections Oct 27
- Where normal Kelowna people live Oct 13
- Where are Kelowna buyers coming from? Sep 22
- August 2014 Kelowna Market Update Sep 8
- Kelowna Housing winners and losers Aug 25
- People talking about real estate again Aug 11
- Closing on a sale during a forest fire Jul 21
- A Realtor needs great knees! Jul 14
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