Seven reasons investors are drooling over Kelowna in 2016
We’re back, baby!
These are exciting times for Kelowna homeowners and investors. We are going to explore why sales for Kelowna investment real estate have shot up 30%, and why there has never been a better time to invest.
It wasn’t long ago that we were the talk of the proverbial real estate town, but after slipping into a six year slump following the global financial crisis, all the money seemed to flow into Alberta, Vancouver and Arizona. With the Canadian dollar on par with the US, we couldn’t compete with deals south of the border no matter how nice our view of Okanagan Lake.
Like a once immortal high school quarterback, we faded into obscurity.
Well it's our time once again. With much of Canada battening down the hatches since oil went below 40 bucks and new government leaders emerged, this four-season playground has been setting records.
We have our own unique micro climate here in Kelowna, and I'm not talking about the stellar weather. I'm talking economics. It’s easy to get caught up in what's happening in Alberta, and to make the assumption that Kelowna will be suffering along with them. Maybe that's because half the cars on the road in Kelowna have red license plates.
People are surprised to learn that Alberta only represents 13% of our total sales, and despite the loss of thousands of jobs in Alberta last year, that number held true to within a couple percent. Is it possible that fewer Albertans will stake their claim in Kelowna in 2016?
Perhaps, but with the opportunity in resource work in northern BC, as well as our bustling construction industry and a couple hundred baby boomer Albertans reaching retirement age every single day, the smart money says no. Regardless, Alberta is not the driving force of the Okanagan market.
Let's look at the economic fundamentals that are underpinning this strong economy, and understand the indicators that tell us what we need to know to reliably predict the direction of real estate for the foreseeable future.
One ~Job growth
BC is experiencing solid growth in current economic conditions. Kelowna, in particular, was just rated the number two hottest job market in Canada. We have an emerging technology sector, a thriving tourism industry, and endless work for skilled labourers, due, in large part, to a construction industry on fire. Experience shows that people will go where the jobs are. After years of losing our workers to the Alberta job market, we are now seeing the pendulum swing the other way.
Two ~ Population growth
Over the past 12 months, we have seen an influx from across Canada, and other parts of the world. Students are piling in, as UBCO continues its expansion. Young families are migrating to Kelowna for the lifestyle and the opportunities. Retirees continue to flock here because of our world class amenities, good hospital, and agreeable weather. Kelowna is very much a destination town that is garnering attention on a world stage.
Three ~ Increased rental demand
Demand is up, as people move to the city and rent for a period before putting down roots and buying a property. Ask any local property manager, they will tell you that they have their pick of quality applicants. There is a frenzy for new rental listings. There has never been a better time to be a landlord in Kelowna.
Four ~ Increased rental prices
Of course, near zero vacancy rates lead to sky rocketing rents. In the past year, we have seen average rents increase by 20% or more. For example: What was once $1500 is now $1800. This has turned average performing properties into home runs.
Five ~ Increased property demand
Combine upward trending rents with cheap mortgage rates to create the perfect storm. We have just finished our strongest year for demand, with record setting months in 2015. Sales were up 13% year over year. This has been the trend since the slump ended and the recovery began in 2013. As a result, the number of properties being purchased for investment has risen dramatically. We saw an increase of over 30% in the number of properties purchased for investment last year.
Six ~ Decrease in supply
Our inventory levels have plummeted to the levels of our peak boom period in 2007, putting us in a seller's market since the spring of last year.
Seven ~ Increase in prices
Always the result of low inventory and high demand, we are seeing prices rise in a steady, sustainable way. Values in 2015 were up roughly 8% year over year, and our average home here in Kelowna is again poised to meet, or exceed, that level of growth in 2016.
Now, as savvy investors, we know better than to buy for appreciation, even though it's hard not to think about the huge, levered return we get when prices trend upward. However, by definition, that is mere speculation. As real investors, cash flow is king, and this is actually why Kelowna deserves your attention.
An average five bedroom house for $420,000 with a suite in the basement will bring in as much as $2,800 per month (that's $1,650 up and $1,150 down). On the cash flow alone, you are seeing a 12% return. Factor in the mortgage pay-down and completely ignore appreciation: You see returns of 20% on your Investment.
Seven big reasons why you should strongly consider adding some prime Kelowna real estate to your portfolio this year, before prices and interest rates inevitably rise.
For a list of the top 10 cash flow properties, email me and I will send them right over.
Eight things you need to know about suites, so you can PROFIT in 2016
There have been some interesting changes in the world of secondary suites of late. And it seems that nearly everyone is confused, or working off old information, when it comes to rental suites.
I’m going to share with you the recent game-changers that have really made things open up, what it all means to you as an owner of Kelowna Real Estate and ultimately how you can use this info to make yourself some money.
So let’s start at the top:
In fall of this year, the Federal government and CMHC changed its rules:
“The changes from CMHC would allow homeowners to count the income from their secondary units when qualifying for a loan, something that would seemingly bring more people into the housing market. Under the new rules, CMHC will consider up to 100 per cent of gross rental income from a two-unit owner-occupied property. This includes basement rental units and in-law apartments.” ~ Financial Post
At the same time, almost serendipitously, local governments decided to open things up for us from a zoning by-law perspective,
Council heard a plan in October that would change current rules against mortgage-helping suites at Gallagher’s Canyon, Tower Ranch and Quail Ridge.
“Planner Ryan Smith told council, staff is working on zoning revisions for the three golf course communities that would allow secondary suites to be legalized in much the same manner as they are in other neighbourhoods, without a public hearing.” ~ Kelowna Daily Courier
Affecting even more households, the City of West Kelowna just amended their zoning bylaws. This is huge:
Nearly every residential zoning in West Kelowna now allows carriage houses, and with far fewer stipulations than on the Kelowna side. The largest being that you don’t need a rear lane access on your lot. The property value increase created when a property has two dwellings is exceptional, not to mention the additional cash-flow. I
had my first client this month follow my advice and buy a rental property in West Kelowna, specifically to take advantage of this rule change. I expect many more to follow suit.
So let’s shift our focus away from rules and regulations, and on to something even more influential when it comes to the real estate markets, and suited properties in particular: Demographics.
Baby-boomers, massive in numbers, were ‘busy’ enough to repopulate the earth at a rate of approx. 2.2 kids per household. Consequently, they have created the largest generation in human history. This generation known as Generation Y, born between 1981 and 1993, is entering the real estate market in droves.
The eldest of the Y Generation turned 33 last year, and in the next decade, there will be more people turning 33 than ever before.
Why is that important? Because the average age of a first-time buyer is, in fact, 33. Due to rising prices and affordability issues, these buyers will be looking at suited homes to allow them to make the jump from renter to homeowner.
While at the same time, and just as much of an economic driver:
Baby boomers are looking to augment their retirement, and are turning to investment real estate to pump up their passive income, as they cruise towards their mid 60’s. Suited homes make a great investment for this demographic.
Add to that, baby boomer parents are opting to move into suites and coach houses rather than retirement homes. This puts even more demand on these kinds of properties.
Now lets talk dollars and cents:
Building a secondary suite doesn’t cost anywhere near what most people think it does (especially if you know who to call), and the revenues have never been higher. Here’s the rent you can expect for a rental suite today:
So what does it cost to put one in?
Here is a basic breakdown of the investment, if you paid a contractor to do the entire job (suggested):
Permits and licensing
Cash and carry for $3500, includes counter tops
$1,500 for basic appliances, or treat yourself to state of the art new ones upstairs and bring your current ones down.
(Fire-rated and sound dampening) $3,000
vinyl planking @ 3.50/sq ft x 800 feet -$3,000
$2,000, Includes new hook-ups
Upgrading electrical panel
Upgrading new bathtub, and vanity and toilet
$7,500 (framer, flooring installer, finish carpenter)
It can be done for as low as $15,000 and as high as $35,000, depending on complexity and quality of finish.
You don’t actually need to have any cash on hand to do this, whether you are putting a suite into a home you already own, or are wanting to put one in a house you are buying, there are really cheap financing options available to you through either a home equity line or a purchase plus improvements line.
Here’s what it would cost you on a line of credit using the highest estimate:
Prime plus .60 = 3.3% $35,000 x 0.03 = $96.25/mo. Now let’s say you build a basic/average suite and rent it for $1100, you are netting $1,000+ per month.
The ROI on the $35,000 is 34%, and keep in mind you didn’t spend a dime of your cash on hand.
Now for the big burning question: To legalize or not to legalize.
Many of my clients come to me with hang-ups with regards to in-law suites. People often say that they only want to look at listings with a legal suite. Fact: If you limit yourself to only properties that have legal suites, you will have way less from which to choose. For example, right now on the MLS, there are 13 homes between 350 and 400 with suites, only two of those are legal. And guess what, they are at the top of the price range.
Here’s a cool stat I’ve never seen anyone publish . . . until now:
In the second half of 2015, the average sale price for a home with a legal suite was $436,000
For the same period of time the average sale price of a non-conforming suite was $413,000
This means that the value the market place is putting on the legalizing of a suite is $23,000.
The question becomes, can you legalize an existing suite for less than $15,000 and double your money? The answer, in most cases, is a resounding YES.
So, let’s look at what it means to have a ‘legal’ secondary suite in Kelowna:
Need a building permit
Need a business license
Need 2 designated parking stalls for tenant
A lit pathway
At least 30m(2) of private, open space
The suite cannot exceed 40% of the total square footage of the principal living area
Several building code standards must be met such as:
Minimum ceiling heights
Hard-wired CO2 and smoke detector
If you’re interested in learning more about the subject of suites and real estate investment, I’ve prepared a free .pdf report just email and I will send it over.
Many of you know that I have a fairly aggressive investing style when it comes to use of leverage to build a portfolio. Not everyone who reads this column wants to be a land baron, many just want a simple, bullet-proof plan that gets them to the coveted seven figures mark without taking any of their precious personal time or adding stress to their life. This article is for that person.
I want to illustrate a painless strategy for any person with access to a down payment and some bank financing to acquire one simple investment property, and, with the help of some mortgage magic, to own this asset outright in 15 years. We will let regular inflation take care of the rest.
Now you might think it odd to learn that I find playing with a mortgage calculator a source of amusement. But I’m just so fascinated by what happens to the amortization schedule with seemingly minuscule adjustments to payments. My investor clients know I always advocate a 30 year amortization. It's the best way to ensure you have options and flexibility with your investment. Then, with a few simple tweaks, you can cut that mortgage in half.
Strategy 1: Switch to a bi-weekly payment
This alone will chop nearly five years off, and you won't even feel it.
Strategy 2: Accelerate payments
This requires a little more discipline, but not the same kind of discipline you would need to walk by a plate of fresh cookies every day for the next 15 years without giving in. It’s just a set-it-and-forget-it decision to defer the benefit of all the glorious positive cash flow your duplex generates.
Yes, the cash flow would make the payment on a brand new Lexus, but to be a net worth millionaire on one lone investment in 15 short years, you will need to abstain. So, we increase the payment by just enough to cut the amortization down another 10 years. Unlike your minimum monthly mortgage payment that is split almost equally between principal and interest, these additional payments go straight to principal. Not only will they have you mortgage-free a decade sooner, they will save you nearly $60,000 in interest costs.
Now, let’s talk about the other side of this equation: Property appreciation. The historical rate of real estate appreciation is 5.4%. At that rate, real estate doubles every 12-15 years. Many people have heard my two cent’s worth, that we have entered a sustainable growth period in the Okanagan that will more or less follow this historic trend for the foreseeable future. Now I can hear the skeptics already, so let me show you ACTUAL sales data for a duplex in Rutland that I recently sold to an investor, as it conveniently changed ownership every 12-15 years.
1976 - $55,000 (Oh it hurts to even see this number.)
1991 - $130,000 (If only my parents had grabbed a couple.)
2004 - $260,000 (When I bought my first. Wish I had the capital to buy more.)
2015 - $500,000 (This is roughly where duplexes have been priced at for last 7 years, I bought most of my duplexes at this price point.)
I did so out of the firm belief that history will repeat itself, and by 2030 or sooner, the market value of any of my Rutland duplexes will be in excess of one million dollars.
Let me show you how the actual numbers shake out, and how this conservative plan will require almost no input from you as the owner.
Each side of your duplex rents for $1950/mo (4 bedroom 2 bath). This means that your gross revenue for the duplex is $46,800 in Year One.
With your accelerated mortgage payments you will invest $31,824 of that revenue. *Minimum Payments ($21,871 @ 3%)
A highly competent property manager is well worth the $4,680 annual investment, so that you don't have to lift a finger or field a single phone call from a tenant. This same manager will see to it that your $3800 property taxes get paid on time. The same manager sees to it that your $1800 annual insurance premium has you well covered in case the unexpected happens.
Now, when you add all that up, you will see that you still have about $5,000 per year in contingency money that will go towards preventative maintenance, coordinated by your manager, and will even cover a vacant month now and again, as is the case with holding property over the long term.
Your personal input can actually be reduced to an annual meeting with your manager to discuss your investment. Your only other job is to take a look at your monthly statements and send the annual report your manager prepares directly to your accountant. How’s that for painless?
If you want to see a proper analysis in black and white, including financial projections, of this exact example duplex, and multiple real world examples, email me and I’ll send a .pdf right over.
So, dream with me for a minute here. You’re about 50 years old today, and you have a $100,000 nest egg, or access to 100k in equity in your primary residence. This simple strategy gives you a million dollar asset, paid off by the time you're at retirement age. The coolest part about this is that you now have options. If you want access to your capital, you could sell your property, pay some capital gains and take your money and run.
Or, you could put a line of credit on the property for 80% of its new value, and take that $800,000 out tax free, reap the additional tax benefits of writing off the interest costs of the line of credit, and fund whatever passions you are now free to explore.
There’s one other very attractive option to consider:
The revenue that this asset is still producing. In Year One, we were getting $46,800. Now, 15 years later, it is $66,000 (based on 3% inflation), so maybe you keep collecting your cheques and travel the world? Heck, it could be a combination of the two. The possibilities are endless for those who do the uncommon.
All it takes is the decision to take matters into our own hands. 15 years from now, will we be laughing all the way to the bank to deposit our million dollar cheque, or will we be kicking ourselves thinking, “Why did I listen to the nay-sayers and give in to my fears?”
There’s no brilliance required to pull this off. You don't need to become an expert, or set up a complicated holding company. You just need to take the first step and call your realtor or mortgage broker. A duplex such as the one in the example is not particularly hard to come by but there aren’t usually more than a handful on the market at any given moment. Less than half a dozen change hands each month, will one of them be yours?
Again, for a .pdf analysis of one of these exact types of property that shows the performance of these duplex investments over time, just send me a quick email.
The phone as of late has been ringing off the hook with investors looking to claim their piece of the inclining real estate market that we are experiencing. On the surface this is a great thing. The problem is that everyone has the same idea, thanks in part to the plethora of HGTV flip shows we see. Everyone wants to quit their job and flip homes for a living. Now I believe that this is entirely possible in certain markets, particularly the buyers market we just came through. Two years ago you could negotiate a great deal with an anxious seller. Now the market has shifted to the advantage of the sellers, homes sell quickly and for top dollar, often for bidding wars as inventory has dipped to near 2007 levels.
A successful flipping venture requires you to find a distressed property and purchase it at a deep discount. You then must renovate and control your costs to eventually sell at a new premium. The challenge now, is that anything cheap goes into multiple offers and contractors if you can find them at all, don’t do anything “for cheap”. This makes executing on budget and on time a real challenge. Again not impossible, you are just swimming against the current.
That aside, I want everyone reading this column to understand that you don’t flip your way to prosperity. Anyone who has created serious wealth through real estate has done so by holding properties that cash –flow. Now here comes the good news, this market that may not be so great for flippers, is a hell of a market to be a landlord in. In Kelowna, you have near a zero vacancy rate, which means you can have your pick of quality tenants willing to pay premium rent for decent units and you have mortgage rates that just got even lower making your mortgage payments well below what you can rent for.
"But AJ, I want to showcase my amazing design skills" you say, "I want the big before and after reveal." No problem, buy a home that needs your TLC, showcase your design skills and impress the heck out of your friends, realtor, appraiser and most importantly the lucky tenant that will occupy the property for the next few years.
With a buy fix hold strategy, you still profit from your hard work, in fact you get even more sweat equity, because you don’t pay real estate commissions or capital gains tax. All of the value increase would be immediately available to you on a line of credit.
Let me illustrate:
You purchase a 5 bedroom home on a decent street for $400,000 with 20% down you invest $80,000 of your hard earned savings into the property when you purchase. You wisely spend $20,000 on the home updating floors, paint, trim, fixtures etc and raise the value of the home to conservatively $450,000. This is doable even if you paid market value for the home on the way in. This may sound like a profitable flip, but If you sold now you would at best break even after fees and carrying costs. A better plan is to hold and utilize a STEP mortgage. To remain a conventional mortgage you can access up to 80% of the appraised value.
(80% x $450,000 = $360,000)
Since your original loan was for $320,000, this means that you can draw $40,000 out. You spent $20,000 to profit $20,000. The cost to access the profit is an interest only payment on the 40k at 2.75% which equates to $91 dollars per month.
By investing in the cosmetics you attract a high quality tenant willing to pay a minimum of $500 more per month than the time warp you started with.
Example: A 5 bedroom home with wood paneling and stinky old carpet would rent for approximately 1800/mo. The same home with new floors, paint and fixtures will fetch 2300/mo. all day long.
Your annual net on the $40,000 you pulled out tax free is nearly five thousand dollars in increased revenue. ($6,000 increased annual income subtract $1,092 annual interest cost.)
So not only do you make a 100% return on the investment and receive it tax free, your $20,000 invested continues to return $5,000 per year infinitely. If all of that wasn’t sexy enough on its own, you get the massive benefit of the tenant paying down your mortgage to the tune of $10,000 per year. You get to participate in the market appreciation we are seeing this year of at least 5% approximately another $20,000.
Now add it all up:
You created $20,000 profit on the renovation
You received $20,000 in market appreciation after a year
Your mortgage got paid down by $10,000
And you saw positive cash flow of $5,000 per year even after hiring a property manager
That’s $55,000 on an $80,000 investment!
Do that twice this year and you create the magic $100,000 per year that you wanted to make only in this example you aren’t spending it as it comes. You are building an impressive net worth.
This is an important distinction and to be candid, a life lesson I learned from watching my dad in his real estate dealings over the years. To his credit, he was an amazing flipper, he made well into the 6 figures renovating ordinary homes every year that I could remember even long before I became a realtor. He was masterful at adding value and creating equity, but because he didn’t hold any of the properties, he never realized the full promise of real estate investing. He needed his profits to live so nothing ever accumulated.
By adopting a Buy – Fix – Hold strategy you can have your cake and eat it too. You will utilize your god given talents to design wonderful spaces adding all kinds of value to your properties, but you will also realize the dream of building a portfolio of rentals that will, before you know it, be paid off providing a steady stream of cash-flow that will truly allow you to quit your job, not just trade it in for a more stressful one without the guarantee of a pay check.
A quick tip for knowledge thirsty folks out there, of the hundreds of books and courses I've devoured over the years, the book HOLD remains the authority on the strategy discussed in this article.
In addition, I always keep a short list of fixer upper investment properties for anyone ready to take the next step and actually get out there and see some Kelowna Investment properties.
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- Apartment buildings: absolute gold mine Nov 10
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- Cash flow or flipper? Jul 15
- The power of 10 May 20
- 5 Deadly mistakes house flippers make Mar 21
- 2013 review: What worked...what didn't Feb 2
- How far can $100,000 get you? Jul 19
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